Over the past few years, we have become all too familiar with housing bubbles. When markets go bust, it gets ugly. Rapidly rising home prices in the early 2000s got the U.S. and parts of Europe into lots of trouble; these economies slumped into recession when prices crashed. Nobody wants to relive another economic disaster, but in some parts of the world, housing markets are looking bubbly, and some fear they risk putting economies in jeopardy. Here's a look at five markets to watch.
过去几年，我们对楼市泡沫都已经再熟悉不过了。每次泡沫破裂的时候，情况会变得很糟糕。2000-2009年代初期的房价迅速上涨让美国和欧洲部分地区麻烦缠身；房价崩盘时，这些地区的经济就陷入了衰退。没人愿意经济灾难重现，但在世界部分地区，楼市看起来已显露泡沫，有些人甚至担心楼市可能让经济陷入困顿。下面是需要警惕的五个市场。
Australia
澳大利亚
In the land down under, home prices are rising quickly, prompting the International Monetary Fund on Wednesday to caution that the recent surge in property prices could cause values to "overshoot."
在澳大利亚南部地区，房价正在迅速上涨，促使国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）于上周三发出警告称，房地产价格最近的暴涨可能导致价值“高估”。
In Sydney, the nation's most populous city, the average home price rose by 13% so far this year to a record $718,122. That's higher than London, where the average is $536,236 and close to New York, where the average is $806,000.
在澳大利亚人口最多的城市悉尼，今年迄今为止，平均住房价格已经上涨了13%，达到了创纪录的718,122美元。这个价格高过了伦敦的平均价格536,236美元，接近纽约的平均价格806,000美元。
The IMF stopped short of saying there's a housing bubble in hot housing markets, including Melbourne and Brisbane, but urged regulators to keep a closer eye on property investments to ensure banks maintain strict lending standards.
IMF没有说墨尔本、布里斯班等火热的住宅市场存在泡沫，但敦促监管机构对房地产投资实施更严密的监控，确保银行维持严格的信贷标准。
In September, Australian central bank officials advised lenders against being too eager to offer mortgages to customers, saying record-low interest rates risked fueling a rise in speculative buying.
9月份，澳大利亚央行官员建议贷款机构不要急于为客户提供按揭贷款，处于历史低位的利率可能推动投机购房升温。
Brazil
巴西
Brazil's president may not think home prices have entered bubble market territory, but Noble Prize winning economist Robert Shiller has warned trouble is on the horizon.
巴西总统或许不认为房价已进入泡沫市场范畴，但诺贝尔奖获得者、经济学家罗伯特•希勒已发出警告称，麻烦已经开始露头。
In Brazil's biggest cities, Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, home prices have risen 188% and 230%, respectively, since January. That's twice as fast as the growth in rent. And while the country's mortgage market is relatively new, mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable household income has climbed to a record 15%.
在巴西最大的城市圣保罗和里约热内卢，房价自1月份以来已分别上涨了188%和230%。这是房租增长率的两倍。而且，虽然巴西按揭贷款市场相对较新，但按揭贷款债务占家庭可支配收入的比例已攀升至创纪录的15%。
Home prices have doubled in five years -- something that virtually never happened in the U.S., says Shiller, a professor at Yale University who forecast the U.S. housing crisis. At an event in Brazil, on Aug. 31, he said: "I actually don't know it's a bubble in Brazil, but I suspect it is and, maybe if I can just say that, it would help cool the fervor."
房价在5年内已翻番——这种情况从未在美国出现过，曾成功预见美国房价危机的耶鲁大学（Yale University）教授希勒表示。8月31日在巴西举行的一项活动中，他说：“我事实上并不知道巴西（楼市）是不是泡沫，但我怀疑是。或许我索性就该这么说，这样就能帮助这个市场降温的话。”
That's unlikely to happen any time soon, however. Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff has dismissed warnings and has instead changed policies to encourage demand, such as raising the price limit of houses people can buy.
不过，巴西楼市短期内可能不会降温。巴西总统迪尔玛•罗塞夫并不认同这些警告，还调整了政策鼓励买房，比如提高人们可以购房的价格限制。
New Zealand
新西兰
Unlike Brazil, the warning signs are out in New Zealand over rising home prices. Déjà vu? Back in the early 2000s, easy credit fueled a housing bubble that eventually burst, causing the economy to dip into recession.
跟巴西不同，新西兰已针对房价上涨问题发出了警告。大家是不是觉得眼前的一幕有些似曾相识？确实，早在2000-2009年代初期，宽松信贷推动的房地产泡沫最终破裂，当时就曾经导致这个国经济陷入衰退。
Ultra-low borrowing costs have helped New Zealand recover, but now they're also helping push home prices higher. Prices in Auckland have risen by 17%, while they're up 8% in Christchurch so far this year.
超低借贷成本帮助新西兰实现了复苏，但如今，它也帮助推高了房价。今年迄今为止，奥克兰的房价涨了17%，而基督城涨了8%。
That's bubble territory, at least according to New Zealand's government. In October, officials tightened lending standards, giving banks less leeway in approving mortgages for buyers who can make only a small down payment.
至少据新西兰政府的讲法，这些都属于泡沫的范畴。10月份，政府官员收紧了贷款标准，银行在审批低首付按揭贷款时的灵活度变小了。
China
中国
In the world's second-largest economy, a view by most Chinese that real estate is one of the safest investments has helped fuel a surge in home prices.
中国是全球第二大经济体中，大多数中国人都认为房地产是最安全的投资品种，而这种观点正在不断地推高房价。
In September, prices rose at the fastest pace in almost three years, according to the latest housing data released in November. In Beijing, prices rose by 16%, Shanghai 17%, and Shenzhen 20% from a year earlier.
11月份最新发布的房地产数据显示，9月份房价涨速是近三年来最快的。北京、上海和深圳房价较上年同期分别上涨了16%、17%和20%。
Many fear that bubbles are brewing within China's housing market, but unlike the housing bubbles seen in the U.S. in the early 2000s, residential mortgage debt remains relatively low. The Chinese are big savers who often store their money in real estate vs. the stock market.
很多人担心泡沫正在中国楼市内部酝酿，但与2000-2009年代初期美国楼市泡沫不同，中国的住宅按揭贷款债务仍相对较低。中国人爱储蓄，总是把钱存入楼市，而不是股市。
China's government has tried to bring prices down, but they keeping going up, and officials are considering whether they should allow banks to set their own interest rates to create more competition.
中国政府一直在尝试抑制房价，但房价仍然在持续上涨，官员们正在考虑是否应让银行设定自己的利率，增加竞争。
United States
美国
Yes, that's right. Many would think home prices are still recovering from the housing market crash in 2007, but higher prices in some parts of the U.S. have led one top Federal Reserve official to admit he is seeing fresh signs of a housing bubble.
没错，说的就是美国。很多人可能认为，房价仍处于从2007年的楼市崩盘恢复的通道中。但美国一些地区的价格大幅上涨，使得一位美联储（ Federal Reserve）官员也不得不承认，他正在看到房地产泡沫的新迹象。
"I'm beginning to see signs not just in my district but across the country that we are entering, once again, a housing bubble," Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher told reporters last month after a speech in New York. "So that leads me ... to be very cautious about our mortgage-backed securities purchase program."
“我开始在我管辖的区域和整个美国看到一些迹象，表明我们正在又一次地进入房地产泡沫，”达拉斯联邦储备银行（Dallas Fed）行长理查德•费希尔上个月在纽约的一次演讲中告诉记者称。“因此，这让我......对于我们的按揭抵押证券购买计划持非常谨慎的态度。”
Fisher cited rising prices in Texas and other cities and warned that the Fed's easy money policies, which have kept mortgages rates ultra low, could be inflating asset prices. Nationwide, the median price for an existing single-family home rose by 12.5% during the third quarter from a year earlier to $207,300.
费希尔也提到了德克萨斯州和其他城市的房价上涨，警告称，将按揭贷款利率保持在超低水平的美联储宽松货币政策可能对资产价格上涨有推升作用。从全国来看，第三季度现有单户住宅价格的中间值较上年同期上涨了12.5%，达到了207,300美元。
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