Conventional travel wisdom says the earlier you book, the lower the price on international trips.
一个传统的旅行小窍门：国际航班的机票订得越早，价格就越便宜。
Wrong. The best time to buy is about two or three months before departure, according to studies of airline-fare trends. Any earlier, you may end up paying hundreds of dollars more for the same coach seat as someone who books later. Waiting until too close to departure can be costly, too, because fares usually go up.
但这个观点是错误的。对机票价格走势的研究发现，最佳的订票时间是在出发前的两三个月。在这之前订票的话，相同的座位你可能会比晚些订票的人多花好几百美元；而临近出发才急忙买票也会付出高昂代价，因为这时候的机票价格通常都会上涨。
'Fares start out real high and then drop. The sweet spot looks like it is about two months prior' to travel, says Bob Harrell, a consultant who tracks airfares and studied about 100 international markets over the past nine months for The Wall Street Journal.
咨询顾问鲍勃•哈瑞尔(Bob Harrell)在过去九个月来，为《华尔街日报》跟踪机票价格，研究约100个国际航线的价格走势，他说，“国际机票的起始价格会很高，然后慢慢下降，最低点是在出发前的两个月左右。”
Choosing when to buy a ticket is one of the most vexing decisions for travelers. Airlines bounce fares up and down regularly, sometimes several times in the same day. Sales come and go quickly, and availability of cheap seats on prime flights can be scarce. Travelers who wait for a better price can end up disappointed when prices keep rising. Travelers who jump on a fare at first search may end up angry if the price drops.
选择何时买票是安排旅程时最让人操心的决策之一。航空公司会定期上下浮动票价，有时候同一天甚至调整好几次，买到特价票的时机稍纵即逝，热门航线上的便宜座位也十分稀缺。如果你坚持要等一个好价格，一路攀升的票价可能让你追悔莫及；而如果不去货比三家就贸然订票，随后的价格下跌也会让你出离愤怒。
With domestic trips, sales are typically launched on Monday nights and the cheapest prices can often be found on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. (Most leisure travelers shop on the weekends, however, when prices may be higher.) FareCompare, a travel-planning website, found 68% of domestic sales are filed Monday night, and typically last one to three days.
就国内航班而言，特价票通常在每周一的晚上放出，因此周二和周三经常出现最优惠的机票。（不过，大多数休闲度假者往往在周末订票，而那时的价格可能是比较高的。）旅行规划网站FareCompare发现，68%的美国国内特价票是在周一晚上放出的，优惠价格通常会保持一到三天。
'Domestic has a very typical pattern, '' says Rick Seaney, FareCompare's chief executive. 'But on international, there's no real pattern.'
FareCompare的首席执行长瑞克•肖恩尼(Rick Seaney)说，“国内机票的价格走势很有规律。但国际机票的价格走势往往变幻莫测。”
Fare analysts say airlines test demand route by route, starting international prices high and then offering some seats at low prices, for example, four or five months before departure. If particular flights fill up quicker than in past years, prices get pushed back up. If sales are slow against historical patterns, prices may drop further─but often not until two or three months before departure. That is when airlines start getting serious about unsold seats on international trips.
机票价格分析人士说，航空公司会针对每条国际航线来试探市场需求，起始票价较高，然后再放出一批价格较低的座位，比如在出发时间前的四五个月。如果某些航班的机票订出速度比往年更快，价格就会上扬。如果销售情况比历史走势要差，价格可能进一步下跌。不过，往往在出发前的两三个月，票价才会降到最低点，因为那时候航空公司开始对国际航班上还没卖出去的座位担心起来。
International sales are seasonal, not weekly, fare experts say, and often route-by-route rather than global.
票价专家表示，国际机票的特价促销是季节性的，而不是每周都会出现，优惠政策往往不会覆盖全球，而是分不同航线推出。
'They may have a French sale or have a Houston sale, ' says Mr. Seaney.
肖恩尼说，“可能会有一批法国航线的特价票，或者一批休斯顿航线的特价票。”
Airlines often launch sales for fall travel about the end of July or early August. The cheapest prices of the year are for travel in February, fare experts say. Those deals usually show up in November and early December.
航空公司经常在7月底或8月初推出秋季旅行的特价票。票价专家说，一年中最便宜的票价会在2月份的国际航班上出现，而这类特价票通常在11月份或12月初投放市场。
One example Wednesday: British Airways began offering $2, 012 round-trip business-class tickets to London for travel between July 16 and Sept 2. These fares typically range from $5, 000 to more than $10, 000. Business-class tickets often sell slowly in the summer, and the Olympics may be discouraging business trips.
举例而言：2012年6月25日周三，英国航空公司(British Airways)开始放出7月16日到9月2日之间往返伦敦的公务舱特价票，价格为2,012美元，而通常的价格在5,000到一万多美元之间。夏季的公务舱机票往往卖得不太好，而且奥运会也可能导致商务旅行的减少。
As with domestic tickets, traveling internationally midweek on Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday is typically less expensive than weekend travel.
和美国国内机票的情况一样，周二、周三或周四的国际机票一般要比周末的机票便宜一些。
For every route, airlines load a dozen or more different fares into reservation systems and then pick which one applies to a specific flight at a specific time, usually based on how well that flight is selling and what the airline expects in demand for seats, including demand from business travelers who book later.
对于每条航线，航空公司都会把十几种甚至更多的票价方案纳入订票系统，并在特定的时间选择在特定航班适用哪一种方案。这通常基于机票的销售情况，以及航空公司对座位需求的预判，同时把那些订票较晚的商务旅行者的需求考虑在内。
Mr. Harrell studied fares for peak travel periods─summertime─and found the lowest price loaded into reservation systems starts high and comes down for several months before moving higher closer to departure. Comparing 100 different routes to Europe, the highest prices were in October for peak-period travel, on average, so buying that early for summer would have been a mistake.
哈瑞尔研究夏天旅游旺季的机票价格，发现在订票系统中最便宜的那批特价票起始价格很高，随后几个月逐步下跌，在出发前又开始回升。他对从美国前往欧洲的100条不同航线进行比较，发现就平均而言，夏天旺季票的最高价格出现在上一年的10月份，因此在10月份为来年的夏季旅行订票不是明智之举。
The cheapest time to buy that peak-period fare: April.
买这种旺季票的最佳时间是：四月份。
How do you know if you've found a good fare? Check prices often, if you can, and write down the lowest fare offered. Having that historical information will help you evaluate when a price is worth grabbing. The travel-booking section at Microsoft Corp.'s Bing.com offers several months of historical prices on select routes. If that is available for your itinerary, it is a huge help: You can see from the chart whether the current price is high or low compared with past prices.
怎么才能知道自己选对了机票？如果可能，经常浏览一下机票价格，把最低的票价信息写下来。这些历史数据能帮你拿主意，看某张机票是否值得出手。微软公司(Microsoft Corp.)搜索引擎网站Bing.com的旅行订票板块能提供一些航线几个月来的历史价格走势。如果其中正好有你想订的航班，那就省事很多：你可以从走势图上看出，目前的机票价格与以往票价相比是高还是低。
After early expectations of big price increases this summer, fares moderated and appear to have ended up only modestly higher than last year.
早些时候，人们预期2012年夏季的国际机票价格会大幅上涨，但后来这一预期逐步缓和，票价随之回落。目前来看，价格仅比去年夏天有小幅上涨。
As economic turmoil roiled Europe and the U.S. economy slowed, demand for long international trips on both sides of the Atlantic weakened, travel sellers say. Many vacationers seem to be opting to stay closer to home, reining in spending on summer vacations.
旅行服务商们表示，由于欧洲经济动荡，美国经济复苏缓慢，横跨大西洋两岸的欧美国际航线需求不振。很多人似乎更倾向于选择离家较近的度假地点，以此来控制夏季度假的开销。
International fares for the July Fourth travel period were up just 1.3% to an average $899 from $888 in 2011 at Travelocity, the online travel agency run by Sabre Holdings Corp. Two years ago, Travelocity's average fare for international destinations, including the Caribbean, Mexico and Canada as well as Europe, Asia and South America, was $804.
根据Sabre控股公司(Sabre Holdings Corp.)旗下旅行服务网站Travelocity的数据，7月4日美国国庆节小长假期间的国际机票价格仅比去年上涨1.3%，2011年平均为888美元，而今年平均为899美元。两年前，Travelocity网站上国际机票的平均价格（包括往返于美国与加勒比海、墨西哥、加拿大、欧洲、亚洲和南美之间的航班）为804美元。
Fares to London, host city of the Summer Olympics, have followed the trend, rather than spiking higher with increased demand, Travelocity says. Airlines added capacity into London to accommodate athletes, coaches, officials and spectators. High prices early on, plus warnings of huge crowds, may have scared away some visitors. Travelocity says its average fare for London this summer was $1, 226, up 2% from $1, 197 last year. By contrast, fares to Cancun, Mexico, are 15% higher than last year.
Travelocity网站称，往返于美国与2012年夏季奥运会举办城市伦敦之间的国际机票也呈现同样的走势，并没有出现因需求增加而导致票价大涨的情况。航空公司纷纷增开往返伦敦的航班，以满足运动员、教练、官员和观众的旅行需求。一开始的高票价，加上对伦敦大批人流集结的预先警告，可能吓走了一些游客。Travelocity说，其网站上今年夏天飞往伦敦的平均机票价格为1,226美元，比去年的1,197美元上涨2%。与此形成对比的是，飞往墨西哥旅游城市坎昆(Cancun)的机票价格比去年上涨了15%。
After 'very, very strong demand throughout the early part of the year leading into May, we've seen demand begin to flatten out, ' says Travelocity Vice President Simon Bramley.
Travelocity的副总裁西蒙•布莱姆利(Simon Bramley)说，“从今年初到5月份，市场对伦敦航线的需求一直都非常非常强劲，而这种需求现在开始放缓。”
Still, high fuel prices have erased many of the cheap off-peak prices travelers used to enjoy. Mr. Seaney notes that airlines have built an average fuel surcharge of $450 round-trip into their international prices, and taxes and government fees can hit $200 or more on some routes. In the U.S., airlines have to display the total price, so travelers don't really see the structural underpinnings of the fare. And while the fuel surcharge is basically just part of the fare, even charging $200 on top of that for flights across oceans means tickets start around $1, 000.
不过，航空燃油价格居高不下，这导致旅行者曾经享受过的许多非旺季特价票今年也踪迹罕见。肖恩尼说，航空公司在设定国际机票价格时，加入了平均450美元的往返燃油费，在一些航线上，各项税费和政府收取的费用可能达到200美元甚至更多。在美国，航空公司只能显示机票总价，旅行者看不到票价的具体构成情况。虽然燃油费只是票价成本的一部分，但越洋航班仅收取200美元的燃油费就意味着机票的起步价要在1,000美元左右。
'It's really changed the dynamic for fall and wintertime fares, where you had prices in the $500s and $600s historically, ' he says.
肖恩尼说，“这真的让人们对于秋季和冬季的票价预期发生变化，以往这两个季节的国际机票价格在五、六百美元左右。”
Mr. Seaney says he likes to go to Germany in the fall for Oktoberfest, typically paying about $700 round-trip. This year, he's expecting to pay more.
肖恩尼说，他喜欢秋天去德国玩，享受慕尼黑啤酒节(Oktoberfest)的气氛。以前去德国的往返票价一般在700美元左右，但今年他有心理预期，票价应该会更贵一些。
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