As 2013 gets under way, one of the biggest questions in financial markets is again bubbling: Will this finally be the year that investors dump bonds and return to stocks?
迈入2013年，金融市场又开始琢磨的一个大问题是：今年投资者到底会不会抛弃债券、重返股市呢？
For years, market watchers have called for what has become known as the 'great rotation' out of bonds and into stocks. And for years they have been wrong.
市场观察人士年复一年地宣称着这种从债市向股市的所谓资金“大转向”(Great Rotation)的到来，但每次他们都落空了。
Now, some signs are indicating that maybe, possibly, the tide is beginning to reverse.
现在，有些迹象显示，这次，这种大转向或许、可能真的开始到来了。
Stocks started 2013 with a bang. For the week ended Wednesday, U.S. investors plowed $18 billion into stock mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, the largest one-week total since June 2008, before the worst of the financial crisis hit.
2013年伊始，股市表现不凡。截至1月9日周三的当周，美国投资者合计向股票型共同基金和交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)投入了180亿美元，创2008年6月（金融危机高潮到来前）以来单周之最。
'That caught people's attention, ' says Matthew Lemieux, senior research analyst at Lipper.
理柏(Lipper)的高级分析师马修•勒米厄(Matthew Lemieux)称：“这引起了大家的注意。”
That followed a growing exodus from U.S. Treasury funds. Since late June, investors have pulled $6 billion from the group, including $1.1 billion in the week ending Wednesday.
在此之前，资金已从美国国债开始撤退。自2012年6月末以来，投资者从美国国债市场共计撤出了60亿美元的资金，包括截至1月9日周三当周的11亿美元。
The moves run counter to a trend that began in 2008, with investors since then pulling money out of stocks and putting $1.1 trillion into taxable government, international and corporate bonds.
这确实与始自2008年的趋势相背离。自2008年起，投资者大举撤离股市，将1.1万亿美元投入到课税的政府债券、国际债券和企业债券上。
Fueling expectations that a longer-term shift out of bonds and into stocks may finally take place is a growing nervousness that bond yields are dangerously low. As 2012 drew to a close, U.S. Treasury yields weren't far from record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve's unprecedented effort to pump money into the financial system through bond purchases. That sent prices up, and yields down.
对于从债券到股市的资金更长期大转移的预期愈加浓厚，反映出债券收益率跌至极低水平所引发的紧张情绪。由于美联储(Federal Reserve)采取了前所未有的大规模行动，通过购买债券向金融系统注入巨资，导致债券价格上涨、收益率下跌。截至2012年末，美国国债收益率已经逼近历史最低水平。
But, due to a quirk of bond math, losses are exaggerated when yields are low. That risk has been brought into sharp relief since the start of 2013. In just three trading days, long-term Treasurys lost 3.07% in value, more than wiping out the 3% coupon payment they will deliver in 2013, according to Barclays.
但是，由于债券投资逻辑的特殊性，收益率低会导致亏损的扩大。进入2013年，该风险突然得到了很大的缓解。据巴克莱(Barclays)表示，在年初的仅仅三个交易日内，长期美国国债的价格就下跌了3.07%，比2013年3%的应付票面利率还要多。
On Jan. 4, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 1.914%, an eight-month high. Some worry it could quickly rise above 2.25%, which would cause sizable losses. The 10-year Treasury yielded 1.871% as of late Friday, up from 1.759% at the end of the year.
1月4日，基准10年期美国国债的收益率升至1.914%，创八个月新高。有人担心其将迅速突破2.25%，引发大规模的亏损。1月11日周五尾盘，10年期美国国债收益率报1.871%，高于2012年末的1.759%。
Meanwhile, yields on both investment grade and riskier junk bonds hit record lows last week. Against this backdrop, many observers are saying it is only a matter of time before investors seek out stocks. They note that shares of dividend-paying companies are often providing higher yields than the company's bonds. With high-quality bonds offering yields below that of the rate of inflation, many investors worry that they aren't being compensated enough for the risks of holding them.
与此同时，投资级和垃圾级债券的收益率在1月11日当周双双创出纪录新低。有鉴于此，很多观察人士都开始宣称，现在投资者涌向股市只是早晚的事了。他们指出，很多派息上市公司的股票收益率都高于其公司债的收益率。优质债券的收益率低于通胀率，很多投资者担心持有这类债券的风险超过了应有的回报。
'I think the 'great rotation' has already started in terms of flows and returns, ' says Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)首席投资策略师迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)说：“我认为就资金流向和回报情况来看，‘大转向’已经开始了。”
Mr. Hartnett is watching for three indicators to determine whether the shift will continue: a falling unemployment rate, a continued drop in returns from fixed-income investments, and a growing belief among investors that the Federal Reserve may end its bond-buying program. These factors could all make Treasurys seem much less attractive.
哈特尼特通过三个指标来判断这种转移趋势是否将会持续：失业率的持续下降，固定收益投资品种回报率的继续下跌，以及投资者对于美联储可能结束债券购买计划的日益坚信。这三项指标均可令美国国债的吸引力大大减弱。
'Now all we are waiting to see is collaboration from both the economy and policy makers, ' Mr. Hartnett says.
哈特尼特说：“现在我们都在等待经济走向和决策者行动能够出现相互呼应的局面。”
Other Wall Street firms have also taken note. In a report titled 'The Search for Yield--Equity Opportunities, ' released early this month, Goldman Sachs analysts made the case for buying dividend stocks instead of bonds.
其他华尔街公司也注意到这个问题。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的分析师在月初发表的题为《寻找收益率──股票机会》(The Search for Yield--Equity Opportunities)的报告中，也建议购买派息股票，而非债券。
Corporate America, Goldman argues, is flush with cash and pays a dividend yield of 2.2%, compared with a 1.6% yield for the average triple-A rated company bond.
高盛方面认为，美国企业界手中现金充裕，支付的股息收益率高达2.2%，而AAA级公司债的平均收益率只有1.6%。
Goldman noted that investors in Treasury and investment-grade corporate bonds stand to lose a lot of money should interest rates ratchet higher. With rates at such low levels, it wouldn't take much of a move to cause losses, analysts say.
高盛指出，如果利率进一步走高，那么美国国债和投资级企业债的投资者就会蒙受巨额损失。分析师表示，目前利率水平很低，只要一点点的上升就很容易引发亏损。
Analysts on average expect 10-year Treasury yields to rise to 2.15%. That would indicate a 2.5% drop in price. If yields moved up to 2.5%, which some say is possible, the price of the bond would fall by 5.5%. Many investors in Treasurys and investment-grade corporate bonds say they are closely eyeing 2.25% as a threshold that may trigger selling.
分析师的平均预期为，10年期美国国债收益率将升至2.15%。这意味着价格将下滑2.5%。而如果像部分分析师认为的那样，收益率升至2.5%，那价格就会下跌5.5%。美国国债及投资级公司债的很多投资者都表示，他们密切关注着2.25%，这个关口可能触发抛盘。
Last week's eye-catching $18 billion move into stock funds included $9 billion heading into U.S. stock mutual funds, the largest take since September. More notably, traditional mutual funds--in other words, not ETFs--attracted $4 billion in just the one week, the first positive week for the group since mid-July.
在截至1月9日当周备受瞩目的流入股票型基金的180亿美元巨额资金中，包括流入美国股票型共同基金的90亿美元，这也创出9月以来的单周规模之最。更为引人注目的是，传统共同基金（即非ETF基金）仅仅一周就吸引到40亿美元的资金流入，而且是7月中旬以来的首次呈单周净流入。
However, things get a bit murkier from there. That one-week shift into U.S. stocks is just a drop in the bucket compared with the $44 billion that drained out in the previous 24 weeks.
但往后来看，情况还是很不明朗。相对于此前24周440亿美元的资金流出，上述单周流入美国股市的资金规模仍显得相当微不足道。
In addition, overall, bond funds continued their record-shattering haul. During the week ended last Wednesday, bond mutual funds and ETFs attracted $4.2 billion, Lipper says.
此外，总体来看，债券型基金创纪录的旅程似乎并未结束。据理柏表示，截至1月9日的当周，债券型共同基金和ETF共吸引到42亿美元的资金流入。
And market observers, including Mr. Lemieux of Lipper, say unusual factors were at work late last year. Many investors stepped to the sidelines late last year as they worried about the year-end budget debate in Washington and its possible effect on the economy. Once that was resolved, they likely moved back into stocks in January.
包括理柏高级分析师勒米厄在内的一些市场观察人士也表示，去年末有些异常因素发挥了作用。因为担心当时华盛顿方面的预算之争及其对经济的潜在影响，很多投资者在年末那段时间选择了离场。而当预算问题尘埃落定后，他们可能又于1月份返回了股市。
At the same time, the last four years have started off with investors shifting money into U.S. stocks only to see that trend reverse in each of those years.
况且，过去四年都是类似的情形：年初时投资者向美国股市转移，其后趋势则发生逆转。
Many market watchers also note that continued wrangling in Washington, particularly over whether to raise the country's borrowing limit, could make some investors leery of moving out of Treasurys, seen as a haven in times of turmoil, and into stocks.
很多市场观察人士还指出，美国两党不停的角力，尤其是在是否提高美国债务上限这个问题上的纷争，会使一些投资者对于撤出国债市场投向股票市场的做法心存疑虑，国债可是向来都被视为动荡时期的避风港的。
'The debt-ceiling debate is still out there, ' says John Bender, head of U.S. fixed income at Legal & General Investment Management America. He says that will keep Treasurys strong for the first quarter of the year.
Legal &General Investment Management America美国固定收益部主管约翰•本德(John Bender)表示，关于债务上限的争辩仍在持续，这会令美国国债在今年第一季度继续保持强势。
And most analysts say that even if investors do continue to lighten up on Treasurys, and possibly investment-grade bonds, 2013 probably won't see a flood of money leaving those funds.
大部分分析师均表示，即便投资者继续减持美国国债、甚至投资级公司债，2013年这类投资基金也不太可能发生大规模资金撤离的情况。
Still, many fund managers say they are paying close attention.
但很多基金经理仍表示，他们会密切关注有关动向。
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