Most everyone will agree that we are in the middle of a digital technology revolution. Digital technologies are being integrated into just about every nook and cranny of the economy, society and our personal lives. In the process, they are leading a historical transition from the industrial economy of the past couple of centuries to a new kind of digital economy and information-based society. As part of this transition, our economy, and just about all institutions of society, are going through major structural changes whose vast implications are not well understood.
大多数人都会认可这样一个观点：我们正处于一场数字技术的革命当中。数字技术融入经济、社会和个人生活的方方面面，并在此过程中引领一个历史性的转变，让延续数世纪之久的工业化经济转向一种全新的数字化经济和信息技术社会。作为大变革的一部分，我们的经济，以及几乎每一个社会层面，都在经历一场重大的结构性变化，而其中蕴含的深远意义还没有得到很好的理解。
It's very difficult to anticipate the consequences of disruptive technologies and innovations. When first developed in the late 19th century, electricity was mostly used to replace kerosene lamps and candles with light bulbs. It took several decades for electric appliances, the assembly line and mass production to emerge and help create whole new industries and many new jobs. Similarly, the impact of the automobile has been felt way beyond its original transportation role, becoming a key driver of the economy in the 20th century, including the rise of the suburbs.
我们难以预料颠覆性的技术和创新会带来什么后果。19世纪末电力刚刚开始应用时，主要用来替代煤油灯和蜡烛灯，数十年后才出现家用电器、组装线和大规模生产模式，从而形成一个全新的产业，创造出许多新的工作岗位。与此类似，汽车也脱离了起初作为交通工具的纯粹功能，与城镇化进程一样，成为20世纪推动经济发展的关键驱动力之一。
If it has proved difficult to predict the long term impact of major industrial-based innovations, it's even more difficult to do so with IT-based innovations because they are so relatively recent. While it might feel that the Web has been around for a very long time, it has only been widely used for less than 20 years. And the smartphones, tablets and other mobile technologies we can barely do without have only been with us for less than half that time. So it is not surprising that most studies looking out a few decades into the future include the caveat that the future is essentially unpredictable, whether because of the emergent behaviors inherent in complex chaotic systems like the economy, or because of the ever-present potential for black swan events which are near-impossible to predict but when they do arrive can profoundly shape the course of history.
事实证明，预测重大工业创新的长远影响是很难的，预测信息技术创新的影响则更为困难，因为它们出现的时间都相对较短。虽然人们可能觉得互联网已经存在很长时间，但其被广泛使用也就是不到20年的时间，而智能手机、平板电脑以及其他一些人们已经不可或缺的移动技术则仅仅面世不到10年时间。因此，绝大多数展望未来数十年的研究报告都会写上一句警示声明：从本质上来说，未来难以预测。这既是因为经济这类错综复杂的体系有一种根深蒂固的应激性临时反应，也因为被视为几乎不会发生的黑天鹅事件确有可能发生，而且一旦降临，所产生的后果将深刻改变历史的进程。
Despite our cloudy crystal ball, a few basic trends stand out. Let me mention and briefly discuss three such trends that appear repeatedly in studies about the future: the need for lifelong education to help workers keep up with rapidly advancing technologies and fast changing job markets; the impact of globalization in raising the standards of living in emerging and developing economies; and the challenges to health care and social benefit programs posed by aging populations around the world.
虽然未来迷雾重重，但有几个基本的大趋势是明显的。我想主要介绍在各种研究报告中被反复提及的三大未来趋势：一是劳动者需要终身学习以跟上科技的迅猛发展以及就业市场的快速变化；二是全球化能够提高新兴市场和发展中国家的生活水准；三是全世界范围的人口老龄化将给医疗和社会福利保障带来挑战。
Jobs and Lifelong Learning
趋势一：就业与终身学习
Prior to the Industrial Revolution, only a small percentage of the world's population was literate. Literacy rates increased throughout the 19th century, as people started moving from the countryside to towns and cities for the job opportunities opening up in the newly industrialized societies. Many of these new jobs, especially the higher paying ones, required the ability to read and write. With the rise of universal education in almost all countries around the world, literacy rates have steadily gone up over the past hundred years.
在工业革命之前，全世界只有一小部分人受过教育。新的工业化社会带来新的就业机会，人们开始从乡村迁往城镇，识字率在整个19世纪逐步上升。许多新工作，尤其是较高收入的工作，要求劳动者具备读写能力。全世界几乎所有国家的大学教育都开始兴起，几百年以来，文盲率稳步下降。
But basic literacy is no longer enough. For years now, routine human tasks, that is, those tasks that can well be described by a set of rules, have been taken over by technology substitution and automation. Many blue-collar manufacturing activities in assembly plans have fallen into this category. So have an increasing number of white-collar information-based activities, including record keeping and many kinds of administrative tasks.
然而，如今基本的读写能力已经是不够了。多年来，常规的劳动任务，即那些可以被一系列规则所描述出来的工作，已被技术产品和自动化所取代。很多组装车间蓝领工人的生产活动就属于这一类别，此外也包括越来越多的基于信息技术的白领工作，如簿记和不少行政事务工作等。
Not surprisingly, our knowledge-based digital economy requires better educated workers with specific skills requirements. For example, we are surrounded by smart machines ─ cars, music players, TVs, video recorders, smartphones, PCs, the Internet, e-mail, the Web, e-commerce sites and on and on and on. They have become indispensable tools at work and at home. Digital literacy, the ability to deal with the sophisticated machines all around and use them effectively to help us address complex problems, has become a very important skill.
以知识为基础的数字经济要求劳动者受过更好的教育，具备特定的技能，这一点不足为奇。举例而言，我们被各种各样的智能机器所包围──汽车、音乐播放器、电视机、摄像机、智能手机、个人电脑、互联网、电子邮件、电子商务网站，等等等等。它们都成为工作和居家生活中不可缺少的工具。数字脱盲，即掌握周围各种先进机器并有效使用它们解决复杂问题的能力，已成为一种十分重要的技能。
In general, people who are comfortable dealing with complexity are better able to handle more demanding, higher paying jobs. In our complex world, unanticipated situations often arise that we have not encountered before and thus require good problem solving skills. Similar cognitive skills are necessary to help us evaluate the options involved in making complex decisions.
通常而言，能自如处理复杂事务的人更善于从事要求较高且收入较高的工作。在我们这个错综复杂的世界，一些难以预料且从未遇到过的情况经常会浮出水面，因此需要我们掌握很好的问题解决能力。类似的认知技能也能帮助我们评估可选方案，做出深思熟虑的决策。
A 2011 study by the McKinsey Global Institute projects a continuous demand for workers with at least a post-secondary education to meet the demands of business. According to McKinsey, employers are already having trouble filling positions requiring technical skills. Many workers will not necessarily have the skills needed for the jobs that are likely to most be in demand,
麦肯锡全球研究所(McKinsey Global Institute)2011年的一份研究报告预测，为满足工作提出的新要求，劳动者继续进修的需求将持续增长。麦肯锡表示，企业在招聘技术岗位时已经感觉到难度很大，许多劳动者并不具备需求最大的那些工作岗位所需的职业技能。
Moreover, as we look into the future, digital technologies will continue to be applied to activities requiring cognitive capabilities and problem solving intelligence that not long ago were viewed as the exclusive domain of humans. As a result, we will need to continually upgrade our skills in order to keep up with our increasingly smart machines and fast changing job requirements.
此外，当我们展望未来时会发现，数字技术将持续应用于那些需要认知能力和问题解决智能的活动，而不久之前，这些活动还被视为是人类得天独厚的擅长领域。结果就是，我们需要不断升级自己的技能，以跟上越来越智能的机器以及快速变化的从业要求。
Rising standard of living in emerging economies
趋势二：新兴经济体生活水准提高
The Industrial Revolution led to major improvements in the standard of living around the world, with different regions experiencing widely different rates of improvement. These improvements were particularly strong in Western Europe, North America, Japan and other advanced economies that strongly benefited from the technological and scientific advances of the Industrial Revolution. They led to a growing middle class of over a billion or so people, mostly concentrated in these industrialized countries.
工业革命给全世界人民的生活水准带来重大改善，但不同地区的获益程度存在很大差异，西欧、北美、日本和其他一些发达经济体的改善程度最大，因为它们都从工业革命的科技进步中获益良多。一个数量超过10亿的中产阶级群体由此成长起来，其中大多数集中在这些工业化国家。
But the standard of living improvements of the past couple of centuries were significantly smaller in most of the rest of the world, including China and India. Thanks to our interconnected, global economy, the situation has now been rapidly changing. The fastest economic growth is now taking place in emerging and developing economies, resulting in significant reductions in poverty and a growing middle class around the world.
然而，其他国家近几个世纪来生活水准的提高程度则要低得多，其中包括中国和印度。随着相互依存的全球化经济的发展，这一情况正在快速改变。现在，新兴市场和发展中国家的经济增速最快，使得贫穷现象显著降低，全世界范围的中产阶级数量不断增长。
A recent study by the US National Intelligence Council looking at the key global trends in the 2030 timeframe identified what they called individual empowerment as their top megatrend.
美国国家情报委员会(US National Intelligence Council)近期做了一项研究，展望了到2030年的全球重大趋势，发现其中有一个最重大的趋势，他们称之为“个体增权”(individual empowerment)。
'Significant numbers of people have been moving from well below the poverty threshold to relatively closer to it due to widespread economic development. Absent a global recession, the number of those living in extreme poverty is poised to decline as incomes continue to rise in most parts of the world. The number could drop by about 50 percent between 2010 and 2030, according to some models. . . Under most scenarios except the most dire significant strides in reducing extreme poverty will be achieved by 2030. . .'
“随着遍及全球的经济发展，有很大一部分在贫困线底部挣扎的人群生活水准逐步提升。假如不出现全球性的经济衰退，随着全世界大多数国家居民收入的增长，极端贫困人群的数量势必下降。根据一些计算模型，2010年到2030年间，这一数量可能降低50%左右……在除极端情况下的绝大多数情景模拟中……到2030年，全世界的极端贫困现象将得到显著缓解。”
'Middle classes most everywhere in the developing world are poised to expand substantially in terms of both absolute numbers and the percentage of the population that can claim middle-class status during the next 15-20 years. Even the more conservative models see a rise in the global total of those living in the middle class from the current 1 billion or so to over 2 billion people. Others see even more substantial rises with, for example, the global middle class reaching 3 billion people by 2030.'
“无论从绝对数量还是人口占比而言，在未来15到20年的时间里，发展中国家的中产阶级阵营都将出现迅猛增长。连一些预测较为保守的模型都得出这样一个结论：全球中产阶级人口的数量将从目前的10亿左右增长到20亿以上。另一些模型的数字则更为可观，例如有个模型预测，全球中产阶级的人数将在2030年达到30亿。”
With billions rising out of poverty and joining the middle class, we can expect an increased demand for critical resources, particularly food and water, as well as for products and services of all kinds. But meeting these demands and hopefully unleashing an age of prosperity will only be possible in an economy based on sustainable production and consumption patterns. Policymakers and their private sector partners need to be proactive to avoid scarcities in the future.
随着几亿人脱离贫困加入中产阶级，我们可以预期到，这些人对于关键资源（尤其是食品和水）以及各种产品和服务的需求将日益增长。然而，只有建立一个拥有可持续生产和消费模式的经济体系，才能满足这些需求，并由此步入繁荣时代。因此，政府和民间企业需要积极行动起来，避免未来出现供需失衡的现象。
Aging populations around the world
趋势三：全球人口老龄化
This same Global Trends 2030 study identified changing demographics as another key megatrend. In particular, the median age of almost all countries is rising rapidly, initially in the more advanced economies of the West and Japan, but increasingly in most developing countries as well.
美国国家情报委员会的这份《2030全球趋势报告》(Global Trends 2030)还发现另一个重大趋势，即人口特征的变化。值得特别指出的是，几乎所有国家的人口年龄中值都在快速上升。这一现象起初主要集中在西方国家和日本等较为发达的经济体，但现在正日益蔓延至大多数的发展中国家。
Over time, a large percentage of the populations of these countries will be over 65 years, posing major challenges to health care and social benefit programs. Technological and organizational innovations are required to help provide high quality, affordable health services to an aging population, as well as to provide the proper environment to enable them to work longer and postpone retirement.
随着时间的推移，这些国家一大部分人口的年龄将超过65岁，从而对医疗和社会福利保障体系构成巨大挑战。因此，我们需要技术创新和组织创新，以便向老龄化人口提供高品质、可承受的医疗服务，同时也需要提供一个适合的环境，延长他们的从业时间，推迟退休年龄。
Moreover, an aging population requires more government services, putting additional pressures on public sector budgets at a time when they are trying to contain their rising costs. Government has grown in advanced economies because their citizens have continued to demand more services from their elected officials. It is fairly clear that as the standard of living goes up in emerging economies, their citizens will demand many of the same government services enjoyed by those in the more affluent economies.
此外，人口老龄化要求政府提供更多的服务，这给已经需要控制开支的公共预算带来额外压力。在发达国家，政府职能正在不断扩大，因为市民通过其选出的官员不断提出越来越多的服务要求。有一点毋庸置疑，随着新兴经济体生活水准的不断提升，其民众也势必会要求享受到富裕国家的人民能够享受到的政府服务。
This all leads to some very tough questions. How can you balance the rising demands on government to improve the quality of life of its citizens while becoming more productive and reducing its overall costs? How should nations restructure their entitlements to make them more affordable given aging populations, longer life spans and lower birth rates? How do you decide which entitlements to transform, reduce or eliminate altogether?
这一切都引向了一个棘手的问题：如何满足人们为提高生活水准而向政府提出的日益增多的要求，同时提高产能效率，降低整体成本？在人口老龄化、平均寿命延长和生育率低下的情况下，这些国家该如何重新分配社会福利，提供人们负担得起的各项服务？如何决定哪些福利需要转变，哪些福利需要减少，哪些福利需要终止？
While each of these trends and their accompanying challenges are well understood, their solutions are not. They will require all our advanced technologies, organizational skills, creative powers, and then some. Hopefully, over time we will find reasonable solutions to these tough 21st century challenges.
虽然我们对于以上三大趋势及其面临的挑战有了一个深入的了解，但解决方案仍付阙如，需要我们集中所有的先进技术、组织技巧和创新能力来攻克难关。希望今后我们能够找到合理的应对方案，来解决21世纪给人类出的这三道难题。
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