中国GDP超日本成全球第二 人均仅为其1/10
作者: 腾讯新闻网
译者: 赖小琪
日本内阁府16日公布的数据显示，二季度日本实际国内生产总值按美元计算为12880亿，环比增长0．1％，按年率计算增长0．4％，弱于预期。而中国之前已经公布今年上半年的经济数据，二季度国内生产总值按美元计算为13390亿，日本经济总量已经落后于中国。
The Japanese Cabinet Office released a serial of data on August 16th, indicating that the real GDP of Japan for the second quarter this year was 1.288 trillion dollars, with a chain growth rate of 0.1% and an annual growth rate of 0.4%, smaller than expectation. Before that, China had released the economic data for the first half of this year, claiming that the GDP for the second quarter this year was 1.339 trillion dollars, which means Japanese economy has fallen behind.
按季度计算，中国的GDP规模其实去年第四季度曾经超过日本，但由于当时已经是年末，而且经济过热，有季节性的因素。因此，整个2009年而言，中国的经济总量不到5万亿美元，而日本则刚刚超过5万亿美元。但分析人士认为，当前中国经济经过宏观调控之后已经主动回落，而且从季度上超过日本出现在比较早的二季度，全年超越日本已成定局。不过即便超过日本成为全球第二大经济体，离第一大经济体的美国还有很大距离，美国的经济规模大约在15万亿美元左右，是中国的3倍。中国即使能按现在这样的速度增长下去，也需要10年左右才能赶上美国，何况现在的速度是否能持续还是个大问题。
In terms of seasonal GDP, China had exceeded Japan in the fourth quarter of last year. But as the fourth quarter was the end of the year and Chinese economy was overheated with some seasonal factors, the annual GDP of 2009 was less than 5 trillions dollars, while Japan’s GDP exceeded 5 trillions narrowly. But some experts think that Chinese economy has cooled down after macroeconomic adjustment and that from the data of the second quarter released recently, China’s GDP is doomed to outrun Japan’s. But even though Chinese economy surpasses Japanese economy and becomes the second largest economic entity, China still falls far behind America, which has an annual GDP of around 15 trillion dollars, three times Chinese GDP. Even if China could grow at the recent speed, it still needs some 10 years before it catches America. But whether Chinese economic growth can maintain such a speed is still unknown.
中国作为一个发展中国家超越日本成为全球第二大经济体具有里程碑意义，美国摩根大通银行首席经济学家布鲁斯•卡斯曼说：“这对于全球经济而言是一个里程碑，让人印象深刻的是中国在一个对于很多国家而言相当困难的时候仍能保持经济的快速增长。”中国这一轮经济增长速度之快让人感到意外，大约10年前，中国还是世界第七大经济体，2007年超越德国成为世界第三，今年则超越日本。
As a developing country, China’s overtaking Japan as the second largest economic entity has a significant meaning. Bruce Kasman, chief economist of Morgan Chase Bank said, “It is a landmark for the global economy. The most impressive thing is that China, in a time when most countries around the world feel tough to move on, can still maintain a rapid growth rate.” It is striking that China can growth at a staggering speed. About 10 years ago, China was only the seventh economic entity in the world, while ranking the third in 2007 and exceeding Japan as the second this year.
在日本东京，普通民众都能直接感受到这种经济力量对比的变化。一些出租车司机称他们经常能够拉到一些中国游客，而日本人因为经济不好乘出租车越来越少。
In Tokyo, Japan, the masses can sense directly the change of the two economic powers. For instance, some taxi drivers claimed that they could often have some Chinese tourists while Japanese taxi takers became fewer and fewer due to economic downturn.
当然，经济体排名的标准不同也会得出不同的结论。按美元折算中国经济规模今年会超过日本，但如果按购买力计算，中国早就超过日本位居世界第二。而如果按人均计算，中国却只有日本的1/10，中国的人口规模是日本的10倍，而总量才刚刚超过。
Of course, the ranking will differ according to different criteria. In denomination of US dollars, Chinese economy will exceed Japanese this year, while in terms of purchasing power, China has long surpassed Japan as the second economic entity. Whereas, in terms of per capita GDP, China only accounts for one tenth of Japan. Now Chinese population is ten times Japanese and its total GDP only surpasses Japanese narrowly. |
