China corn imports to hit 15-year peak
中国玉米进口量将创15年新高
作者: Gregory Meyer 选自英国>(Financial Time)
译者: 爱尔兰都柏林大学 赖小琪
China is set to import the largest amount of corn in more than 15 years, according to US government analysts in Beijing, injecting new demand into a tight global market.
美国政府驻北京的分析师表示, 中国的玉米进口将会在未来15年再创新高, 为未来已经紧缩的世界市场注入新的需求.
The analysts project that China will import 2.5m tonnes of corn in the crop year that begins in September, making its third significant international purchase in three years.
分析家预计, 中国将会在始于今年9月份的新的作物年中进口250万吨的玉米. 这是三年来的第三次大宗国际采购.
If the projection is confirmed, the imports will be hitting the third-highest level in 50 years.
如果预计得到证实, 中国的进口量将会达到50年来的第三高的水平.
Corn futures have risen 13 per cent in the past week as rumours circulated that a trading house had sold millions of tonnes of US corn to China.
玉米期货价格在上周累计上涨了13%, 原因是有传言一家贸易公司向中国销售了几百万吨的美国玉米.
Export data released on Thursday did not confirm new sales, however.
然而, 周四公布的出口数据并没有显示有新的玉米出售.
Many analysts said China, whose middle class is consuming more meat, will need to turn to foreign corn suppliers to feed livestock. China is already the world’s largest importer of soyabeans, also an animal feed ingredient.
很多分析师称, 中国的中层阶级消费越来越多的肉类, 因此中国需要向国外的玉米供应商购买玉米来喂养牲畜. 中国已经是世界最大的大豆进口国, 同时大豆也是动物的饲料之一.
The US Grains Council, citing private forecasts, projected that China’s leftover corn stocks would cover only 15 per cent of domestic demand this year.
美国谷物理事会引用非官方预测数据预计, 中国的剩下的玉米存货只能满足今年15% 的国内需求.
Grain supplies are a sensitive topic in China, whose state grain companies denied there had been new purchases of corn in the past week. The US analysts in Beijing do not represent the official view of the US Department of Agriculture.
粮食供应在中国是一个敏感的话题, 因此国有粮食企业都否认曾在上周进行过新的玉米采购. 美国驻北京的分析师的观点并不代表美国家农业部的官方观点.
The department’s long-term forecast estimates that China will import 1.2m tonnes of corn in the coming year with levels steadily rising to 8m tonnes in a decade. More Chinese corn purchases, while small as a share of world trade, would come at a time when supplies are critically low in the US, the largest exporter.
根据农业部长期以来的预测估计, 中国将会在未来一年进口120万吨的玉米, 同时这个数字将会在十来内稳定上升至800万吨. 中国更多的玉米采购, 尽管只是占世界贸易的很小一部分, 将会在美国这个最大的玉米出口国的玉米供应处于底潮时进行.
Richard Feltes, vice- president at brokers RJ O’Brien in Chicago, said: “Quite frankly, the world does not have a lot of corn to give to China right now, even if they wanted it. That is why the market is so on edge.”
芝加哥经纪商RJ O'Brien的副总裁理查德•菲尔特斯表示: “坦白地说, 现在全世界并没有太多的玉米可以供应给中国, 即使中国非常需要玉米. 这就是为什么玉米市场感到如此强的危机感.”
On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery were at $6.95 per bushel on Thursday, up 2 per cent. Prices have gained 90 per cent in the past year.
本周四, 芝加哥期货交易所五月交割的玉米期货价格处于每蒲式6.95美元, 累计上涨了2个百分点. 在过去的一年里, 总体的玉米期货价格累计上涨90%. |
