苹果很 “平安”
原文: 选自英国>
译者: 爱尔兰都柏林大学 赖小琪
A drop in Apple’s stock price is causing a mild panic. The shares are down 6 per cent since the start of the month and are off 10 per cent this year’s peak. Not huge moves, but Apple’s investors are a sensitive, cult-like lot. Are they right to be worried?
苹果公司的股价下跌引起了一阵轻微的恐慌. 该公司股价本月初以来下降了6%, 比起今年的最高价则下降了10%. 这并不算什么大波动, 但是苹果的股东们都是非常敏感与痴迷的人. 他们的担忧又是否有道理呢?
Hardly. The loudest argument against Apple is leadership uncertainty. Steve Jobs is the driving force behind the company. He is ill, but just how ill is not known. The board has not done nearly enough to clarify succession plans or to dispel the myth (if it is a myth) that the company’s success is the product of one man’s genius.
非也. 关于苹果公司不利的说法中, 领导人的不确定性位居第一. 史蒂夫•乔布斯是公司背后的驱动力量. 如今他病了, 但是病得多重却无人知晓. 董事会并没有充分地公布继任计划, 也没有澄清关于 “苹果的成功是靠一个人的天才铸就的”的传说(如果这真的是个传说的话).
This argument is correct as far as it goes. Where it stops is valuation. Apple can now be owned at 13 times prospective earnings in spite of expected sales growth of 60 per cent this year. The multiple is almost as low as IBM’s – a great company, but one that is only growing its topline at a mere 10th of Apple’s growth rate. Succession is an issue of course, perhaps more for Apple than for most hyper-successful companies. But at 13 times, investors are well insulated whatever happens.
其实, 这种说法也不无道理. 但是谈及苹果的估值, 这个说法就站不住脚了. 今年苹果的销售收入预期将会增长60%, 但是它的估价却只是预期收益的13倍. 这个市盈率几乎与大公司IBM的市盈率一样低, 但是IBM的收入增长率仅为苹果的十分之一. 继任当然是一个重要问题. 相对于其他超级成功的公司而言, 这个问题对苹果来说或许更加重要. 但是由于该公司的市盈率只有13倍, 投资者无论如何也不会蒙受损失.
Nervous types also worry whether Apple can keep up its staggering growth rate, especially with a current revenue base of $100bn. Investors who have tried to make money on tech groups with decelerating growth rates have almost always failed. Yes, despite its impressive record to date, growth has to slow. Apple can only revolutionise consumer technology so many times. But again this argument runs aground on valuation. Apple is not Cisco Systems or Microsoft a decade ago. Those companies, whose shares are still floundering below their peak levels, were selling for monstrous multiples when their growth rates rolled over.
忧心之众仍然担心苹果能否保持其惊人的增长速度, 特别是在目前收入基础高达1000亿美元的情况下. 凡是试图从增长率不断降低的科技公司赚钱的投资者, 最后几乎都以失败告终. 毫无疑问, 尽管现在苹果业绩漂亮, 但是其增长速度还是会减慢, 因为苹果很难频繁地改革消费科技产业. 但是问题如果回到估值上, 苹果可不是十年前的思科或者微软. 如今这两家公司的增长连连受挫, 股价仍然在最高峰水平下苦苦挣扎, 但是它们的市盈率却高得惊人.
In contrast, Apple is trading more like a value stock right now. The risks, if anything, must surely be to the upside.
相比之下, 苹果如今更像是一只价值股. 哪怕是有风险, 也一定是上行风险. |
