秋意渐浓.
清晨到楼下的餐厅买早餐, 一阵凉风吹过, 我不禁打了个寒战. 我知道, 那是清凉的秋风开始提醒人们, 酷暑即将远去, 冷秋与寒冬即将来临.
天气变得越来越干燥. 清晨洗完脸或者晚上洗完澡后, 嘴唇和脸开始变得干燥紧绷, 让人感到不适. 好像自从几年前得了皮肤过敏症后, 我的皮肤就变得相当 “脆弱”. 一旦感到干燥而不去理会它时, 过敏就会如约而至. 这让我相当苦恼. 于是, 洗漱过后, 我就赶紧从行李箱里拿出润唇膏和面霜. 干燥瞬间得到缓解, 我也感到如释重负. 想想这些年来我还真是被皮肤过敏折磨透了, 现在已经习惯了它的存在. 反而如果有那么一两天它没有发作, 我倒觉得有点奇怪, 居然有点想念起它来了. 难道我已经离不开它了? 每当有这样的想法冒出脑际时, 我会立即笑自己傻, 因为哪有人会想念疾病的呢?
对于秋天, 我是怀着一种既爱慕又畏惧的心情. 爱慕她, 是因为她的到来意味着酷暑的离去, 我不用再过那大汗淋漓, 烈日当空的生活; 畏惧她, 是因为 “自古逢秋悲寂寥”, 万物凋零的秋天总是让人思绪飘飞, 想起过去许多不堪回首的往事, 或者悲悯生命的由盛转衰, 感慨繁华易逝, 青春难留. 每每思及此事, 不免黯然神伤.
其实, 古人的悲秋之绪尤胜今人. 杜甫的 “万里悲秋常作客, 百年多病多登台”, 抒发了诗人年迈多病、感时伤世和寄寓异乡的悲苦; 王实甫在>中的 “碧云天，黄花地，西风紧，北雁南飞。晓来谁染霜林醉，总是离人泪”, 深深地表达出了崔莺莺对张生的离愁别绪; 李煜的 “无言独上西楼, 月如钩, 寂寞梧桐深院锁清秋”, 刻画出作者亡国后的悲寂孤苦的生活; 李清照的 “莫道不消魂, 帘卷西风, 人比黄花瘦”, 深刻地表现了女词人对丈夫的无限思念之情. 而反观今人, 由于我们的自然环境和人文环境已经和古时相异甚巨, 我们已经很难再从自然的景观中寻找我们的灵感和归宿. 举目四望, 我们看到的尽是高楼大厦, 车水马龙; 侧耳倾听, 我们听到的尽是马达雷鸣, 施工噪音. 再加上平时大家为工作和生计行色匆匆, 无暇静养, 试问我们的精神与情感又怎么可能不被严重地荒芜呢?
在浓浓的秋意中, 我们或许有和古人一样的忧伤, 但是古人却比我们幸福, 因为他们可以寄情高山流水, 西风碧树. 他们的忧伤有了寄托后, 不管他们有多么的压抑, 最后都会渐渐地释然, 因为没有任何一种灵丹妙药可以取代自然对我们心灵的抚慰. 而反现我们现代人, 虽然我们物质生活富足了, 但是我们却离自然越来越远, 我们的心灵与精神也渐渐地失去了归宿. 物欲横流, 灯红酒绿的生活, 只能满足我们片刻的欲望; 而对于一个有思想和精神追求的人来讲, 我们需要从山重水复, 柳暗花明中寻找精神的空灵与寄托. 那是一种本能的渴望.
秋日的午后, 我喜欢听着电脑里放出的略带忧伤的音乐, 吃着几颗葡萄, 然后凝望着窗外的风景, 静静地沉思. 窗外也全是密集的高楼大厦, 难得见一片绿叶, 让人感到压抑. 再加上最近发生了些不太愉快的事情, 虽然与我没有直接的联系, 可是却总我感到无比的烦恼. 于是我会经常萌生一个念头: 今年年底有时间的话, 我会尽量去别的地方走走, 比如说云南丽江. 我想暂时离开这个喧嚣的城市, 去寻找别样的宁静. 这可以说是一次旅行, 但更是一次精神与灵魂的休养.
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Panic measures will ruin the Bric recovery
By Jim O’Neill
Perhaps not surprisingly given the coincidence of major economic issues in both Europe and the US, many respected commentators are arguing that the world is about to end. Immense challenges now face the downgraded US and the eurozone, as it tries to keep its currency alive. Luckily, however, there are other important global players and economic drivers – most importantly China, and its worries about inflation.
Demand in the so-called Bric economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China is now more important to the world economy than the US and Europe. In the decade that finished in 2010, the Brics added around $8,000bn to global gross domestic product, equivalent to about 80 per cent of that of the Group of Seven leading economies. The Brics will probably add around $12,000bn more over the next decade, double the US and the eurozone combined.
China is obviously the most important of the Brics, and in this regard, Tuesday’s new Chinese inflation figures are especially significant. For the month of July, these showed prices rising slightly again, to 6.5 per cent. Any rise worries China’s leaders, but this is actually likely to be the last increase for some time. By the end of the year the rate should fall back to – or perhaps below – 5 per cent. Next year, it should move back down towards 4 per cent. If this were not to happen, it might end up being an even bigger problem for Europe and the US, especially if the same were true elsewhere in the Growth World.
What happens to China’s inflation rate is now a topic of great significance for the wider world. It will of course be important for the advanced economies to respond to their domestic challenges. But in the new era, it is also ever more vital to think through the external consequences of any policy changes they make. The west’s central banks are doubtless contemplating fresh monetary stimulus. But given the wider global context, they might be better off taking actions that would help to reduce inflationary pressures in their current and future export markets.
Over the coming decade other important developing economies, such as South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, will also grow quickly. Yet for all of these countries, just as with China, what really matters for their domestic demand (and therefore for the world economy) is reduced inflationary pressures, helped by lower commodity prices. Exports to the US and Europe matter much less.
The same is true in China, only more so given the size of the economy. Indeed, the world needs a strong domestic Chinese economy more than ever. I think we are likely to get one. Pre-global crisis China was led by exports and investment. Post-crisis, it will be led by its consumers. Yet this cannot happen if Chinese inflation is rising.
The latest retail sales indicators suggest that Chinese consumption is probably rising by around 20 per cent per year. The current size of Chinese consumption is $2,100bn. Assuming the level is as low as the 35 per cent of GDP in the official data, then a 20 per cent growth rate translates into an extra $400bn a year. The combined rate of consumption growth in the other Bric nations is similar, meaning that these four countries alone will add something like $800bn to global growth this year alone.
If you then add up the domestic consumption of all the next tier of developing markets, you find that the world is no longer dependent on the leadership of the US and Europe. Indeed, the leaders of the G7 will now have to be even more hopeful that the current degree of fast consumption increases continues, given it is really the only plausible means by which they can recover from their current mess.
Insofar as much of the inflation that China and the other developing economies have recently experienced comes from food and energy prices, this should make G7 policymakers think carefully about the consequences of any fresh monetary and other forms of stimulus. This action might indirectly make their own problems even worse, if it resulted in fresh weakness of the dollar and thus a new bout of rising commodity prices. More specific policies aimed at unblocking their own domestic growth would probably be more useful, and support any declines in commodity prices. Our policy aim should be simple: to boost the economies of these crucial export markets, whose help the west is going to need ever more in future. |
