Washington — Human influences are having an impact on some extreme weather and climate events, according to the report Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective released September 5 by the American Meteorological Society.
华盛顿——据美国气象学会（American Meteorological Society）9月5日发表的《从气候观点解释2012年的极端天气事件》（Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective）报告，人为因素正在影响某些极端天气和气候事件。
Eighteen different research teams from around the world contributed to the peer-reviewed report that examined the causes of 12 extreme events which occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 2012. Scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) served as three of the four lead editors on the report.
来自全世界的18个不同科研小组参与了这项同行审议报告的研究工作。报告分析了2012年期间发生在5大洲和北极地区（Arctic）的12个极端事件的原因。在报告4名主编中，有3名是美国国家海洋和大气管理局（U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）的科学家。
The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of the 2012 extreme events. However, in some events, the analyses revealed compelling evidence that human-caused climate change, through the emission of heat-trapping gases, also contributed to the extreme event.
报告显示，自然天气和气候波动的效应在2012年极端事件的强烈度和演变中具有关键作用。然而在某些事件中，报告中的分析揭示出令人信服的证据，表明人为造成的气候变化——排放温室气体，也对极端事件起到推波助澜的作用。
“This report adds to a growing ability of climate science to untangle the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events, ” said Thomas R. Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. “Nonetheless, determining the causes of extreme events remains challenging.”
国家海洋和大气管理局全国气候数据中心（NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center）主任托马斯•卡尔（Thomas R. Karl）说：“这个报告使气候科学更加能够理清复杂的导致具体极端天气和气候事件的自然和人为因素。尽管如此，确定极端事件的各种原因仍然颇具挑战性。”
In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events — the warm temperatures in the United States, the record-low levels of Arctic sea ice and the heavy rain in both northern Europe and eastern Australia — allowed the scientists to compare the strengths and weaknesses of their various methods of analysis. Despite their different strategies, there was considerable agreement between the assessments of the same events.
除了调查一些极端事件的原因之外，对其中4个事件的多重分析——美国暖和的气温、北极海冰面积创纪录缩小以及北欧和澳大利亚东部暴雨——让科学家们得以比较他们各种分析方法的优劣。但是，尽管采用的策略不尽相同，科学家对同一些事件的评估却相当一致。
Thomas Peterson, principal scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, and one of the lead editors on the report, said, “Scientists around the world assessed a wide variety of potential contributing factors to these major extreme events that, in many cases, had large impacts on society. Understanding the range of influences on extreme events helps us to better understand how and why extremes are changing."
国家气候数据中心首席科学家、报告主编之一托马斯•彼得森（Thomas Peterson）说：“世界各地的科学家评估了一系列广泛的可能造成这些重大事件的因素，这些事件在许多情况下给社会造成了重大影响。了解造成这些极端事件的各种因素有助于我们更好地了解极端天气在怎样变化及其原因。”
Key findings include:
报告中的主要发现包括：
• Human-induced climate change had little impact on the lack of precipitation in the central United States in 2012.
• 人为引起的气候变化对2012年美国中部缺少降水几乎没有影响。
• High temperatures, such as those experienced in the U.S. in 2012, are now likely to occur four times as frequently due to human-induced climate change.
• 由于人为引起的气候变化，如2012年美国经历的高温天气的发生频率现在有可能是过去的4倍。
• Approximately 35 percent of the extreme warmth experienced in the eastern U.S. between March and May 2012 can be attributed to human-induced climate
• 2012年3月至5月在美国东部出现的极端暖温天气，约35%是人为引起的气候所造成。
• The record-setting impacts of Hurricane Sandy were largely attributable to the massive storm surge that coincided with high tide. However, climate-change-related increases in sea level have nearly doubled the annual probability of a Sandy-level flood recurrence as compared to 1950. Ongoing natural and human-induced forcing of sea level ensures that Sandy-level inundation events will occur more frequently in the future from storms with less intensity and lower storm surge than Sandy.
• “桑迪”飓风（Hurricane Sandy）创纪录的影响主要是由与高潮汐同时出现的大规模风暴潮所造成。然而，与1950年相比，与气候变化相关的海平面升高导致再度发生“桑迪级”洪水的年度概率增加了将近一倍。由于不断发生的自然和人为引起的海平面上升，可以肯定，即使未来风暴和风暴潮的强度低于“桑迪”，“桑迪”程度的洪水事件也会更为频繁。
• The extremely low Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2012 resulted primarily from the melting of younger, thin ice from a warmed atmosphere and ocean. This event cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Summer Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decrease in the future, and is expected to be largely absent by mid-century.
• 2012年夏季北极海冰极少的主要原因是，大气和海洋变暖融化了较年轻的薄冰层。这个事件不能仅用自然变异来解释。夏季北极海冰面积在未来将继续减少，预计到本世纪中叶将基本不复存在。
• The unusually high amount of summer rainfall in the United Kingdom in 2012 was largely the result of natural variability. However, there is evidence that rainfall totals are influenced by increases in sea surface temperature and atmospheric moisture that may be linked to human influences on climate.
• 2012年夏季英国出现的异常大量降雨主要由自然变异因素造成。然而，有证据表明，降雨的总量受到海面温度和大气湿度上升的影响，这些因素可能与人类对气候的各种影响有关。
• The magnitude of the extreme rainfall experienced over southeastern Australia between October 2011 and March 2012 was mainly associated with La Niña conditions. However, the likelihood of above-average precipitation during March was found to have increased by 5 percent to 15 percent because of human influences on the climate.
• 2011年10月至2012年3月间澳大利亚东南部出现的极端大量降雨主要与拉尼娜（La Niña）现象有关。然而，由于人类对气候的影响，3月份出现超常降水量的可能性增加了5%至15%。
• Extreme rainfall events such as the December 2011 two-day rainfall in Golden Bay, New Zealand, are more likely to occur due to a 1 percent to 5 percent increase in available moisture resulting from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
•由于大气中温室气体增多而导致湿度增加1%至5%，如 2011年12月在新西兰金海湾（Golden Bay）地区发生的为时两天的极端降雨事件更有可能再次发生。
• The July 2012 extreme rainfall events in North China and southwestern Japan were mainly due to natural variability.
• 2012年7月在中国北部和日本西南地区发生的极端降雨事件主要由自然变异造成。
The report (PDF, 26MB) is available on the American Meteorological Society website.
该报告登载于美国气象学会网站。
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