作者: 未知 来自腾讯新闻网
译者: 深圳大学 赖小琪
从2005年开始，房地产绑架中国经济的说法就流传甚广，政府和公众似乎都认为中国经济增长严重依赖房地产，房地产的兴衰决定着中国经济的兴衰，这种说法直接导致了房地产调控的投鼠忌器。最近，渣打银行发布报告认为，年底前中国房价将大幅下降（一线城市降幅将为20%-30%），过快的降价可能会迫使有关部门年底前取消紧缩措施。目前看来，因为忌惮影响经济增速，这轮房地产调控又有虎头蛇尾之虞。
From 2005, the saying has become prevailing that Chinese real estate has “kidnapped” Chinese economy. Governments and the public all seem to believe that Chinese economic development is largely relying on the real estate market and that the prosperity of economy is determined by the real estate, which directly leads to the ineffective control of the real estate market. Recently, the Standard Chartered Bank released a report, saying that before the end of this year, the price of property will decline tremendously ( price of property in most developed city may undergo a drop of 20% to 30%), which may cause relevant organizations to take austere measures. In terms of the current situation, for fear that the economic growth will be affected negatively, the control of real estate may not receive expected result.
世界上有许多说不清道不明的因果关系，就像是鸡生蛋还是蛋生鸡一样，房地产和中国经济的关系似乎也是如此。虽然二者的因果关系需要经济学家进行严谨的证明，但从简单的经济常识来看，尽管房地产和中国经济之间肯定是相互影响的，但房地产更多地要依赖中国经济的增长，而不是相反，房地产不可能一枝独秀地支撑经济增长，它更多的是经济高增长或预期之下的附属品。
There are many complicated causalities which can barely be explained clearly. For example, we can hardly tell egg and chicken, which came into being first. It is the same with real estate and Chinese economy. But from a simple economic view, even though they are interrelated and affecting each other, the real estate market is to a greater extent relying on economic growth, not the other way round. It is by no means possible for the real estate to support economic growth. To a greater degree, it is the by-product of the speeding economic growth.
过去30年，作为一个出口导向型的经济体，中国经济增长严重依赖的是出口（除此之外，还包括政府主导的基础设施投资），可以说中国经济是被出口绑架了。未来中国经济高速增长能否持续要看出口，如果金融危机过后出口扩张难以持续下去，中国经济就要在增长驱动力向内需转型的过程中经历中低速增长，再加上人口老龄化的威胁，即使存在刚性需求，房地产市场也难以大有作为。
In the past three decades, as an export-oriented economic entity, Chinese economic growth largely relied on exportation ( infrastructure investment was also included). So we can say that Chinese economy has been “kidnapped” by exportation. In the future whether Chinese economy will maintain high growth rate will be decided by exportation. If exportation cannot go on growing after financial crisis, Chinese economy will suffer a medium-to-low growth in the course of shifting from external demands to internal demands. Plus, under the threat of aging population, even though the market has fixed demands, it is still hard for real estate market to boom.
之所以会众口一词地认为房地产绑架中国经济，是犯了简单的唯数据论的错误。从消费、投资和净出口这三驾马车对经济增长的贡献率来看，净出口的贡献率一直看起来不高，2001─2004年之间一直都是个位数的水平，2005年达到近年最高点24%的水平，2006年和2007年一直保持在20%左右，2008年和2009年分别回落到9.2%和-44.8%左右。看到这个数字，人们会本能地认为中国经济还是依赖消费和投资的。在消费比较稳定的背景下，更多地依赖投资，而且随着房地产开发投资2003-2007年平均27%左右的增长水平，占城镇固定资产投资的比重超过了20%，占GDP的比重接近10%，所以有人会认为这段时间中国经济严重依赖房地产。
Believe that the real estate had “kidnapped” Chinese economy is actually committing a only-statistics-oriented mistake. From the respective contribution rate of consumption, investment and net export to the economy, net export seems not outstanding. From 2001 to 2004, its contribution rate did not exceed 10%, while in 2005, it reached its peak of 24%. In 2006 and 2007, the rate was around 20%, while in 2008 and 2009, it plummeted to 9.2% and even -44.8%. Seeing these figures, we may spontaneously think that Chinese economy mainly relies on consumption and investment. In the context of steady consumption, the economy relies more on investment. Moreover, with a growing rate of 27% in real estate market from 2003 to 2007, the real estate investment accounted for 20% of the total fixed asset investment and for nearly 10% of the total GDP. Therefore, people tend to believe that Chinese economy relies mainly on real estate.
但是，这种静态的比较消费、投资和净出口贡献率的缺陷是忽略了他们之间的相互关系，从而低估了出口、高估了房地产对中国经济的影响。对于中国经济来说，出口是源动力，它不仅直接影响到GDP，还间接影响到消费和投资，其中也包括房地产开发投资，从而带来连锁反应，在这一过程中，房地产开发投资是被动的和滞后的。
However, such static comparison of contribution rates among consumption, investment and net export has a major drawback that it overlooks their interrelationships, thereby underestimating the importance of export and overestimating the importance of real estate in Chinese economy. For Chinese economy, export is the original force that can not only directly affect GDP, but also indirectly affect consumption and investment which also includes real estate investment, thereby bringing a chain of consequences. In this process, the real estate investment is passive and following. |
