China's productivity is slipping away, the miracle days are largely over and the best way for Beijing to slow its slide into 'the middle-income trap' is through meaningful structural reform, two reports argue, a process that has so far remained largely in the slow lane.
一份研究报告认为，中国的生产率正在下滑，奇迹般快速增长的日子已经基本一去不返了，对于北京来说，减缓滑入“中等收入陷阱”的最佳方式就是进行有效的结构性改革，目前看来这方面的改革基本上仍处在慢车道。
China's economy, once described as miraculous, is now struggling with rapid wage increases and a declining number of new workers, so productivity gains increasingly must come from structural reform, automation, greater company efficiency and innovation, the reports say.
报告指出，一度被称为奇迹的中国经济目前正受到工资快速增长、新劳动力不断减少的困扰，因此必须通过结构性改革、自动化、提高公司效率以及革新来实现生产率的不断增长。
'China is now at this critical juncture, and maybe has been for several years, ' writes Harry X. Wu, a senior advisor to The Conference Board's China Center and an economics professor at Japan's Hitotsubashi University. 'This explains the ongoing 'soft fall' slowdown in economic growth despite the government's continued stimulus exercises and continuing high-levels of investment and supporting credit expansion.'
世界大型企业研究会(Conference Board)中国中心高级顾问、日本一桥大学(Hitotsubashi University)经济学教授伍晓鹰写到：中国目前正处于这一关键转折点，生产率下滑问题可能已经存在了数年时间。这也解释了为什么政府持续推出刺激政策，保持较高的投资水平并支持信贷扩张，经济增长却不断放缓。
Mr. Wu argues in a Conference Board paper that China's economic ascent may have been less miraculous than it appeared, with total factor productivity -- a measure of an economy's technological dynamism -- badly lagging other Asian high-growth economies at a similar stage in their development.
伍晓鹰在世界大型企业研究会的一份研究报告中表示，中国经济的崛起可能并不像其表面看起来的那么风光，因为衡量经济技术活力的指标，即全要素生产率，表现严重落后于其他亚洲高增长经济体处在相似发展阶段时。
China's 1% average annual growth in total factor productivity between 1978 and 2012 -- a period when average per capita annual incomes rose from $2, 000 to $8, 000 -- compares with 4% annual gains for Japan during its comparable 1950-1970 high-growth period, 3% for Taiwan from 1966-1990 and 2% for South Korea from 1966-1990, he said, when purchasing power in the relative economies is taken into account.
伍晓鹰表示，1978年至2012年期间，中国全要素生产率的平均年增长率为1%，期间人均年收入由2,000美元增至8,000美元。相比之下，日本1950年至1970年的相似高增长时期，全要素生产率年均增长率为4%，台湾在1966年至1990年为3%，韩国在1966年至1990年为2%。他称，相关经济体的购买力因素已考虑在内。
'Our study shows that China's spectacular growth in the reform period has been mainly investment-driven and quite inefficient, ' Mr. Wu wrote.
伍晓鹰写道，他们的研究显示，中国在上述时期取得的高速增长主要由投资推动，效率相当低。
A big problem, which often complicates efforts to assess the health of China's economy, is the reliability of Chinese data. Using three measures of productivity, J.P. Morgan economist Haibin Zhu concludes in a research note that China's total factor productivity grew 1.1% in 2013 from a 3.2% expansion in 2008. Mr. Wu draws on different methodology to argue that total factor productivity turned negative from 2007 to 2012.
这里面的一个大问题是中国数据的可靠性，这个问题常常会令评估中国经济健康状况的努力变得更加困难。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)经济学家朱海滨在一份研究报告中总结称，基于三种生产率指标计算，2013年中国全要素生产率增幅为1.1%，低于2008年的3.2%。他使用另外的计算方法得出的结果为，2007年至2012年中国全要素生产率为负值。
'Correctly measuring China's productivity has, not surprisingly, been obstructed by severe data problems that have resulted in widely contradictory productivity performance estimates, ' Mr. Wu said.
伍晓鹰表示，严重的数据问题并不令人意外地妨碍了对中国生产率情况的正确衡量，从而导致对生产率的估计出现了很大的矛盾之处。
Echoing Mr. Wu's view that investment rather than labor has in recent years driven China's productivity -- and not that well -- Mr. Zhu said that China has made some of the right noises about much-needed structural reform, but finds implementation challenging.
伍晓鹰认为最近几年推动中国生产率的是投资而非劳动力，效果也不理想。对此朱海滨也表示，中国在急需的结构性改革方面已经有了一些正确的看法，但是在落实时却遇到了挑战。
'Restoring productivity is critical, ' for China if it wants to work down overcapacity while maintaining a relatively high growth rate, Mr. Zhu wrote. But when it comes to structural reform, 'the current government has limited experience and is facing resistance from vested interest groups, ' he added.
朱海滨写道，如果中国希望在降低过剩产能的同时又保持相对较高的增长率，则恢复生产率是关键。但是提到结构性改革，他认为，目前的政府经验有限，并且还面临着来自既得利益集团的阻力。
Mr. Wu argues that China has a highly checkered history on productivity growth from 1957 until now -- he describes the early 1957-1965 central planning days as a productivity 'graveyard' -- with the only major bright spot occurring between China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 and the global financial crisis in 2007. This period played to China's competitive strength in labor-intensive industries as global markets expanded, he said.
伍晓鹰表示，从历史角度看，从1957年到现在中国的生产率水平一直起伏较大（他将1957-1965年中央计划时期描述为生产率的墓地），唯一的主要亮点出现在中国2001年加入世界贸易组织(WTO)到2007年全球金融危机发生前这段时间。他说，这一时期随着全球市场扩大，中国的劳动力密集型产业的竞争力得到加强。
By 2006, however, China's economy was already starting to overheat, fueled by Olympics-related over-investment, Mr. Wu argues, compounded by the massive stimulus program starting in 2008 that fueled inefficient investment and bad loans.
伍晓鹰指出，而到了2006年，中国经济已开始出现过热现象，这主要是由北京承办2008年夏季奥运会带来的过度投资所致，另外，2008年推出的大规模刺激措施还造成了低效投资和坏账等问题。
Many countries that once seemed like miracle economies have not managed to increase their productivity, undergo fundamental restructuring and otherwise emerge from the so-called middle-income trap, including Argentina and Chile, Mr. Wu said in an interview.
伍晓鹰在一次采访中称，许多曾被视为创造了经济奇迹的国家都存在以下问题：无法提高生产率，无法顺利实施根本性的结构改革，无法摆脱所谓的中等收入陷阱。这些国家中就包括阿根廷和智利。
'The over-building, the over-capacity and the 'advance' of the less efficient State into private sector markets are now substantially dragging on China's growth, ' Mr. Wu wrote. 'In short, the findings illuminate that China's principle economic problem today is one of productivity.'
伍晓鹰写道，过度建设、产能过剩以及效率低下的国企“进入”民营产业市场，正在严重拖累中国的经济增长；简言之，这些研究发现说明，如今中国最主要的经济问题是生产率的问题。
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