Is it possible, after a year of soaring stock prices, for chief executives to feel anything but jubilant about 2014?
过了一年的股价飙升之后，首席执行长们对于2014年是否可能有除了欣喜之外的其它感受？
An optimist, goes the old saying, is someone who doesn't have all the facts. The last five years have lurched from crisis to crisis-Wall Street, real estate, jobs, Europe, Washington gridlock-each of which rocked the business world. Maybe it's no surprise that, for some CEOs, there's a lingering suspicion that the wolf is still sniffing around the door.
老话说，乐观主义者就是不掌握所有事实的人。过去五年中，危机此起彼伏──华尔街、房地产、就业、欧洲、华盛顿政治僵局──每一场危机都震动着商界。一些首席执行长仍担心危险还未完全退去，这或许不足为奇。
Gisbert R垩hl, CEO of Klöckner & Co., the global steel distributor based in Germany, wonders what might happen if the U.S. botches its monetary policy, unwinding all that easy money. The danger of military intervention in Iran-and a spike in oil prices-is at the top of the list for Seifi Ghasemi, CEO of Rockwood Holdings, which makes specialty chemicals.
总部位于德国的全球钢铁经销商Klockner &Co.的首席执行长吕尔(Gisbert Ruhl)担心，如果美国弄砸货币政策，取消所有的低息贷款，会出现何种情况。生产特殊化学品的Rockwood Holdings首席执行长加斯米(Seifi Ghaseme)最担心的是对伊朗进行军事干预的危险和原油价格飙升。
And then there's the hidden weakness in those U.S. jobs numbers. 'Our business depends on discretionary consumer dollars, and a shrinking employment base and stagnant personal income are not the kind of foundation that bodes well for the future, ' says Gerry Lopez, CEO of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., the movie-theater company.
此外令人担忧的还有美国就业数据潜藏的疲弱表现。美国电影院线运营商AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.的首席执行长洛佩兹(Gerry Lopez)说，我们的业务依赖于消费者的可支配收入，萎缩的就业群体和停滞不前的个人收入并不预示前景向好。
I asked members of The Wall Street Journal's CEO Council, a global group of chief executives who meet annually, to ponder the unpredictable. What development outside their control might significantly affect their businesses in 2014? Their responses-about three dozen-described a large mine field.
笔者请《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)主办的首席执行长理事会(CEO Council)的成员思考不可预知的前景。该理事会是一个由全球首席执行长组成的组织，每年举行一次会议。2014年在他们控制之外的什么情况可能会严重影响到他们的业务？30多位首席执行长的回答描绘出了一个范围很广的雷区。
Among the more predictable and widely held concerns were political stalemate in Washington and the Affordable Care Act. While some of the CEOs endorsed the intent of the new health-care law, they believe there will be more surprises and unintended consequences as the reforms roll out. And that could push up corporate costs, push down revenue, or just generally whack consumer confidence.
更加可预测的普遍担忧包括华盛顿政治危机和《平价医疗法案》(Affordable Care Act)。虽然一些首席执行长认可这个新医疗法的意图，但他们认为，随着改革推进，将出现更多令人惊讶和始料不及的后果。这可能推高企业成本，压低收入，或者只是整体打击消费者信心。
'In 2014, the health-care system will be marked by an influx of patients ... all pressing in on a very stressed physician-provider community experiencing shortages and sweeping reimbursement challenges, ' says Lynn Britton, CEO of Mercy Health, the health-care provider.
医疗服务提供商Mercy Health的首席执行长布里顿(Lynn Britton)说，2014年，医疗体系的特点将是患者的大量涌入……都将给非常紧张的医生和医疗提供商群体造成压力，这个群体将经历短缺和普遍的报销难题。
'It could be a mess, ' adds William Winkenwerder, CEO of Highmark Health, an insurer.
保险商Highmark Health的首席执行长温肯韦尔德(William Winkenwerder)说，情况可能会一团糟。
All anxieties, like politics, are local. So it is that Mark Costa, CEO of Eastman Chemical Co. , worries that 2014 may see more approvals by the Energy Department of new natural-gas export facilities. The supply in the U.S. of cheap natural gas from shale has been a welcome boon to energy-intensive manufacturers like Eastman. If the U.S. ships more gas abroad, prices in the U.S.-and for Eastman-could rise.
包括政治问题在内的所有担心都是地方性的。所以伊士曼化工公司(Eastman Chemical Co., EMN)的首席执行长科斯塔(Mark Costa)担心的是，2014年能源部(Energy Department)可能会批准建设更多的新天然气出口设施。美国廉价页岩气供应对伊士曼这样的能源密集型企业来说一直是一个福音。如果美国增加天然气出口，美国天然气价格（伊士曼的天然气成本）就可能攀升。
Supply is also on the mind of Paolo Scaroni, the CEO of the Italian oil and gas multinational ENI SpA. ENI is the biggest international energy company in Libya, and it was hammered by the country's political instability in 2013.
供给也是意大利油气跨国公司埃尼公司(ENI SpA.)的首席执行长斯卡罗尼(Paolo Scaroni)担忧的问题。该公司是在利比亚经营的第一大国际能源公司，2013年该国的政治动荡曾令其受挫。
Mr. Scaroni says that 'the situation in Libya' tops his list of potential uncertainties in 2014. He adds that production from the country rebounded at the end of the year and says, 'We are optimistic for 2014, but it is largely outside our control.'
斯卡罗尼说，“利比亚的局势”是他认为的2014年潜在不确定因素中最大的不确定因素。他说，去年底来自利比亚的产量回升，我们对2014年持乐观看法，但这基本不受我们的控制。
Yang Yuanqing, CEO of the big Chinese personal-computer maker Lenovo Group, sees considerable virtue in the outside force that's most likely to affect his company. The ever-increasing consumption of the world's expanding middle class, especially in China, is key to all global companies, he says.
中国大型个人电脑制造商联想集团有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd., 简称：联想集团)首席执行长杨元庆在最有可能影响该公司的外部因素中看到了巨大的机遇。他说，全球不断壮大的中产阶级日益增强的消费需求（特别是在中国），对全球所有企业都至关重要。
'There is an incredible amount of purchasing power that will soon be unleashed as emerging markets become stronger and the global economy becomes healthier, ' adds Mr. Yang.
杨元庆说，随着新型市场日益强大，同时全球经济日益改善，不久将有规模惊人的购买力被释放。
All true. But many businesses still haven't shaken a recession mentality. At least that's the view of Martin Sorrell, the CEO of advertising giant WPP Group PLC. His 'biggest worry' about the 2014 corporate horizon 'is a continued focus on cost cutting to drive profitability, rather than a focus on top-line growth, ' he says.
这些都对。但许多企业仍未摆脱衰退心态。至少广告巨头WPP Group PLC. 的首席执行长索雷尔(Martin Sorrell)是这样。他说，他对2014年企业领域的最大担忧是，企业会继续专注于通过削减成本，而不是增收，来提振赢利能力。
'You can't cut your way to prosperity. Investing in brands to drive top-line growth is critical.'
他说，你不能依靠削减成本来实现强盛，投资于品牌来推动收入增长才是关键。
Pick your wall of worry. There will be plenty for business to scale in 2014.
想想你的忧虑之 。2014年企业将有大量忧虑之 需要攀越。
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