Venture capital firms are going to raise more money in 2014 than they have since 2007; Bitcoin is a commodity, not a currency and the Blackberry marketplace will decompose faster than anyone says: here are 5 predictions for 2014 from Silicon Valley VC firms Foundation Capital and Bain Capital Ventures.
2014年，风投界融资总额将达到2007年以来的高点；比特币是商品而非货币；黑莓市场的解体速度将超过任何人的预期。以下是来自硅谷风投公司基础投资（Foundation Capital）和贝恩资本（Bain Capital Ventures）的五大预测。
VC firms will raise more money in 2014 than they have since 2007
2014年，风投界融资总额将达到2007年以来的高点
Venture capital firms have failed to raise funds totaling more than the $28B raised in 2007, according to Venture Economics. That’s all set to change, says Foundation Capital General Partner Paul Holland. Holland helped take textbook rental company, Chegg public in November. Although Chegg hit the market with a thud, Foundation hopes the company will have a similar trajectory to Netflix, one of the firm’s earlier investments.
据Venture Economics的数据，2007年，各风投公司总计融资逾280亿美元，之后数年都无法再逾越这一水平。但基础资本普通合伙人保罗·霍兰德（Paul Holland）表示，这种状况很快就会改变。今年11月，霍兰德帮助教科书租借公司Chegg完成上市。虽然Chegg股价出师不利，但基础资本还是盼望着它出现类似于网飞（Netflix）类似的股价走势——网飞也是该公司先前的投资之一。
“Over 200 VC firms will go to market next year, including some of the biggest names in the business and with the recent flurry of high value exits, they will receive a much more welcome reception from institutional investors than any time in the last seven years, ” says Holland.
“明年将有200多家风投公司走向市场，其中包括业内如雷贯耳的几个名字。而且随着最近一大批高估值退出案例的涌现，它们从机构投资者那里获得的受欢迎程度，将达到近七年来的高点。”霍兰德说。
Salil Deshpande Managing Director at Bain Capital Ventures is more circumspect. Deshpande joined Bain Capital Ventures from Bay Partners in 2013. At Bay he invested in the Series A in SpringSource, which was acquired by VMWare for $420 million. He was also a seed investor in both Buddy Media, which was acquired by Salesforce.com, and Jambool, which was bought by Google.
贝恩资本常务董事萨里尔·德什潘德（Salil Deshpande）则更为小心谨慎。在于2013年跳槽至贝恩资本之前，德什潘德曾供职于湾区合伙人公司（Bay Partners），在那期间参投了SpringSource的A轮融资，后该公司被VMWare以4.2亿美元收购。他还是Buddy Media和Jambool的种子投资人，前者已被Salesforce.com收购，后者被谷歌（Google）买下。
“Firms with strong brands that have demonstrated consistent stable returns for the last fifteen years should be able to raise (a) large or larger funds in 2014, and (b) easily or more easily. The question is, should they?” he said.
“拥有一个强有力的品牌，且在过去15年间维持一贯稳定收益的公司，应该能够在2014年轻而易举地筹得大笔资金，或者说比往年更容易、融资规模较往年更大。问题已经不在于能不能，而只在于应不应该了。”他说。
The death knell for Blackberry
丧钟为黑莓而鸣
“The Blackberry marketplace will decompose faster than anyone is currently predicting, ” says Holland.
“黑莓市场的解体步伐将超过任何人目前的预测。”霍兰德说。
There are at least 18 million corporate-supported Blackberries in North America with large companies issuing edicts that they’re unlikely to be supported by corporate IT soon – companies will require their employees to move to iPhones, Android or Windows devices, says Holland.
北美地区目前至少有1,800万部企业支持的黑莓手机，其中很多大企业都已明确发出通知，表示IT很快将不再支持黑莓。各企业将要求员工转换至iPhone、安卓或Windows系统设备，霍兰德说。
The move to mobile-only
向“仅限移动”模式转移
Large corporations will begin to abandon software production for desktop machines and will begin to issue new versions and updates for mobile devices only, including smart phones and tablets, says Holland.
大企业将开始抛弃台式机软件的生产，开始发布仅限于移动设备使用的新版本与更新，这些移动设备包括智能手机和平板电脑，霍兰德说。
Don’t believe the hype
不要相信概念炒作
“Whenever something gets a name, I become weary and worry that it’s long in the tooth, ” says Deshpande. “ For example I invested in the Facebook ecosystem via Buddy Media in 2007 before it had a name, I invested in Platform as a Service (PaaS) via Engine Yard and others before PaaS was a term, I invested in Big Data via DataStax and others before it had a name, and in the API economy via MuleSoft before it had a name, ” he said. VCs could become more cautious as the bandwagon-jumping continues on ideas like ‘the internet of things’ in 2014.
“一种新事物一旦被赋予名称，我就开始提防，担心它大势将去。”德什潘德说，“比如，我透过Buddy Media投资‘Facebook生态系统’时是2007年，那时它还没有名字；我透过Engine Yard等途径投资‘平台即服务’（PaaS）时，PaaS也还没有成为一个术语；我透过DataStax等渠道投资‘大数据’（Big Data）时，它也还没有得名；我透过MuleSoft公司投资‘API经济’时，它也还没有名称。”他说。随着人们在2014年继续对诸如“物联网”等概念趋之若鹜，风投资本家们应当倍加小心。
Think of Bitcoin as a commodity, not a currency
将比特币视作商品而非货币
Until now the only way to diversify away from ‘fiat currencies, ’ which Deshpande defines as “currencies conjured up and controlled by sovereigns whose central banks one had to trust, ” was representative currencies such as gold and silver.
到目前为止，在法定货币之外实现多元化的唯一途径就是投资金银等典型货币。（德什潘德对“法定货币”的定义是，“由主权国家发行并控制的货币”，且“对于这种主权国家的央行，你不信也得信。”）
“Bitcoin will continue to gain more traction, momentum, and credibility; enough for the non-fiat non-representative currency to become a real option for diversification away from fiat currencies. As such it will gradually, but with non trivial volatility, increase in value and eventually trade in a pattern similar to gold, ” says Deshpande.
“比特币的市场欢迎度、前进势头和可信度还将继续高歌猛进，足以让这种非法定、非典型货币成为法定货币之外实实在在的多元化投资选项。它将这样逐步升值下去——其间不乏重大震荡，最后越来越趋近于黄金的走势。”德什潘德说。
“The proper way to think about Bitcoin for now is not as a currency, due to its lack of price-stability, but rather as a commodity, ” says Deshpande.
“由于比特币价格缺乏稳定性，目前而言，恰当的态度是将其视作一种商品，而不是货币。”德什潘德说。
“Subtracting the industrial value of gold from the current trading value of gold yields the diversification value of gold, and this is the value addressable by Bitcoin over the long term, ” says Deshpande.
“当前金价减去黄金工业价值，得到的就是黄金的多元化投资价值，而这正是比特币在长期内可以肩负的价值。”德什潘德说。
“There will be many ways to play this, including wallets, remittances and payments, exchanges, and mining, but one simple way to play, which everyone can participate in, is to accumulate Bitcoin, ” he added.
“比特币有很多种玩法，包括电子钱包、汇款与支付、汇兑还有挖矿，但还有一种所有人都能参与的简单形式，那就是比特币收集。”他补充说。
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