Yes, 2014 is an absolute total disaster just waiting to ignite. In 'Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end' we analyzed 10 major crash warnings since early this year. Since then, more incoming bogies raced across our radar screen. Ticking time bombs from Congress, the Supreme Court, sex, carbon emissions, Big Oil, NSA, IRS, Tea Party austerity. Relentless. Mind-numbing.
不错，2014年完全是一场灾难，只等着引爆。在《年内股市崩盘的概率有多大？》(Doomsday poll: 87% risk of stock crash by year-end)一文中，我们分析了今年年初以来的10大崩盘征兆。之后，我们又不断发现了更多新的妖魔。它们有如嘀嗒作响的定时炸弹，来自国会、最高法院、性问题、碳排放、石油巨头、国家安全局(NSA)、国税局(IRS)、茶党式财政紧缩。接踵而至，让人无法招架。
So many are tuning out. Denial. Truth is, bubbles are everywhere. Ready to blow. The evidence is accelerating, with only one obvious conclusion: Max 98% risk at a flashpoint. This 2014 crash is virtually guaranteed. There's but a narrow 2% chance of dodging this bullet.
那么多的人视而不见，不承认事实。真相是泡沫无处不在，随时准备爆掉。证据越来越多，结论只有显而易见的一个：泡沫破灭的风险最高可达98%。2014年这次崩盘几乎是铁定要发生的，躲过这枚子弹的概率只有区区2%。
Here are the 10 bogies, drones targeting markets, stocks, bonds and the, global economy:
以下10种妖魔就像无人机一样，瞄准了股市、债市和世界经济：
1. Bubble With No Name Yet triggers the biggest crash in 30 years
1. “暂时没有名字的泡沫”引发30年来的最大规模崩盘
All three of the big worldwide financial bubbles that have blow up in the last three decades have 'been fueled by the Fed keeping policy rates below the nominal growth rate of the economy far too long, ' says global strategist Kit Juckes of the French bank Societe Generale.
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)国际策略师基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)说，过去30年破灭的三个世界级金融大泡沫背后，都是“美联储(Fed)太久时间将政策利率维持在名义经济增长率之下”。
The three bubbles: The Asian Bubble in the early '90s, Dot-com Bubble of the late '90s and what Juckes calls the Great Big Credit Bubble that triggered the 2008 Wall Street meltdown.
三个泡沫分别是：20世纪90年代初的亚洲泡沫，90年代晚期的互联网泡沫，以及在2008年引起华尔街崩盘的那次泡沫，朱克斯称之为“信贷大泡沫”(Great Big Credit Bubble)。
Juckes warns that we're now trapped in the fourth megabubble fueled by the Federal Reserve in the last 30 years, since the rise of conservative economics. He calls this one, the Bubble With No Name Yet. OK, we invite you to send in your nomination to name the new bubble. But whatever you call it, do it fast, it's close to popping, like the Asian, Dot-com and Credit crashes the last 30 years.
朱克斯提醒，我们目前正处于第四次超级大泡沫之中，它是美联储在保守经济学兴起以来的30年时间里吹起来的。他将这个泡沫称为“暂时没有名字的泡沫”(Bubble With No Name Yet)。好，大家来给这个新泡沫命名吧。但不管你叫它什么，都要快点起名，因为它马上就要爆了，就像过去30年相继破灭的亚洲泡沫、互联网泡沫和信贷泡沫一样。
2. Marc Faber's Doomsday warning on Bernanke's disastrous QE scheme
2. 麦嘉华对贝南克灾难性QE计划的末日警告
Faber laughs at Bernanke's remark that the economy would be strong enough later this year so he could take his foot off the gas, that is begin 'tapering, or scaling back it's stimulative quantitative easing (QE) program later this year.' Yes, laughed.
贝南克(Bernanke)说今年晚些时候的经济将会走强，所以到时候他可以松开油门，也就是“在今年晚些时候开始减弱刺激性的量化宽松(QE)计划”。对此麦嘉华(Marc Faber)笑了。没错，他笑了。
According to BusinessInsider.com, 'embracing hyperbole, ' Faber 'suggested that QE would basically be a part of everyday life for the rest of our lives, ' adding that back in 2010 in the early days of Bernanke's disastrous experiment, Faber warned 'the Fed's headed for QE99.'
据BusinessInsider.com报道，麦嘉华夸张地说，“QE基本上会成为我们下半辈子日常生活的一部分”。麦嘉华还说，2010年在贝南克灾难性试验的早期阶段，他曾给出“美联储奔向QE99”的警告。
3. Economy is already crashing, GDP will get even worse in 2014-2016
3. 经济已经在崩溃，2014年到2016年的GDP将会更加难看
Over at Huffington Post Mark Gongloff warns: That 'dramatic downgrade of U.S. economic growth in the first quarter revealed the economy's lingering weakness, exposed the folly of Washington's austerity obsession and slapped the Federal Reserve's newfound optimism right in the face.' And with politics deteriorating, it'll get worse.
马克•高恩洛夫(Mark Gongloff)在《赫芬顿邮报》(Huffington Post)上警告说：“一季度美国经济增长的大幅降级揭示了经济体挥之不去的疲弱，暴露了华盛顿执迷于财政紧缩的愚蠢，并给美联储最新的乐观打了一记响亮的耳光。”而随着政治局势的恶化，增长速度还会进一步放缓。
Gongloff piles on the bad news about 2014: GDP 'grew at a 1.8% annualized pace in the first quarter ... revising down its earlier estimate of 2.4% growth ... The first quarter's dismal growth was at least better than the 0.4% GDP growth of the fourth quarter of 2012. But it was still far from healthy, and economists don't see it getting much stronger any time soon.' And that's real bad news for the markets going into 2014.
高恩洛夫罗列出一长串有关2014年的坏消息：“2013年一季度GDP年化增长速度为1.8%……向下修正了早前增长2.4%的估计……一季度的惨淡增长至少好于2012年四季度GDP 0.4%的增长，但离健康的增长仍然差了很多，经济学家预计短时间内也不会好到哪里去。”对进入2014年的市场来说，这是实打实的坏消息。
4. Precious metals: 'Going dark! Economic cycles point downward'
4. 贵金属：“都在玩消失！经济周期下行”
That's the headline flashing red warnings. After reviewing 20 cycles tracked by 20 other experts, GoldSeek.com concluded: 'There are many cycles that suggest a stock-market correction or crash is near ... Preparation is important. You still have a little time remaining before the 'window' closes!'
GoldSeek.com的这个标题发出了红色警报。在评估另外20名专家跟踪的20种周期之后，它总结道：“很多周期表明股市的调整或崩溃已经临近……未雨绸缪是很重要的。在‘窗口’关闭之前，你仍有一些时间！”
Traders heading for the exits: 'Unsustainable trends can survive much longer than most people anticipate, but they do end when their 'time is up, at the culmination of their time cycles.' They analyzed more than 20 cycles: 'Nearly unanimously point to tectonic shifts in the months and years ahead.'
交易员们纷纷退出：“不可持续趋势苟延残喘的时间可以远超多数人的预期，但时候一到，在周期的顶点，它们还是会结束。”他们分析了20多种周期，“差不多无一意外地预示未来数月、数年将发生地壳运动”。
Yes, they hedge on the timing but the ticking time bombs are loud, close. And 'the precious-metals crash, starting in April of 2013, was the first warning of what is coming globally.'
是的，在具体时间问题上它们给不出答案，但定时炸弹的嘀嗒声很响、很近。“始于2013年4月份的贵金属崩盘，是全世界即将发生的情况的第一个警告信号。”
5. Gross warns: 'Ponzi Scheme! Tipping Point! Credit Supernova!'
5. 格罗斯警告：“庞氏骗局！临界点！信贷超新星！”
Bond King Bill Gross admits, 'QE must end.' Trillions of cheap money 'has distorted incentives and inflated asset prices to artificial levels.' But now Gross says 'the Fed plan may be too hasty.'
债券大王比尔•格罗斯(Bill Gross)承认：“QE必须结束。”数万亿的低成本资金“扭曲了激励机制，将资产价格推高至人为水平”。但现在格罗斯说“美联储的计划可能过于仓促了”。
What? Hasn't his firm made enough money off Bernanke's cheap money printing? So he's blaming 'lower growth on fiscal austerity, ' even as Bernanke keeps blowing up the Fed's balance-sheet bubble by trillions under the delusion he's America's savior because our dysfunctional Congress failed?
什么？他的公司利用贝南克印刷的低息钞票还没赚够？于是他将“增长速度降低”归咎于“财政紧缩”？就在贝南克错以为国会失灵、他才是美国的救星，所以继续以数万亿的规模吹胀美联储资产负债表泡沫的时候？
Gross shifts, makes no sense: Just four months ago he warned the Fed is blowing a Credit Supernova, a new monetary bubble that would implode Bernanke's arrogant risky experiment putting America's future at great risk by bankrolling a Wall Street Ponzi Scheme and blowing a huge financial bubble.
格罗斯出尔反尔，不可理喻：四个月前他还警告说美联储正在构造一颗信贷超新星、一个新的信贷泡沫，这个泡沫将击垮贝南克资助华尔街庞氏骗局、吹起一个巨大金融泡沫、进而将美国之未来置于巨大风险之下的自负的、高风险的实验。
Now, like an addict who can't stop, Gross writes in his Tipping Point blog that QE will run to 2015. Earlier it seemed like the Bubble With No Name Yet should be renamed the Bernanke Bubble. But now, with Gross and Pimco's $2 trillion at stake here, maybe we should call it The Gross Bubble.
现在，就像瘾君子戒不了毒一样，格罗斯在其博客“Tipping Point”中写道，QE将维持到2015年。“暂时没有名字的泡沫”早前似乎应该改名叫“贝南克泡沫”。但现在事关格罗斯及其太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)的二万亿美元，或许我们应该称之为“格罗斯泡沫”。
Everyone on Wall Street, Main Street and Washington keeps forgetting the fundamentals of market cycles. Please remember: Investors Business Daily's Bill O'Neill, author of 'How to Make Money in Stocks, ' says market cycles average 3.75 years up, nine months down.
华尔街、大街上和华盛顿的每一个人都在不断地忘记市场周期的基本原理。请记住：《笑傲股市》(How to Make Money in Stocks)作者、《投资者商务日报》(Investors Business Daily)的比尔•奥尼尔(Bill O'Neill)说，市场的上行周期平均为3.75年，下行周期平均为九个月。
But 'averages' are old data, not future facts. Happy talk won't restart a bull. And more warnings won't puncture an old bubble. Cycles have lives of their own, move up and down when they damn well feel like it. That's nature.
但“平均”讲的是以前的情况，不是未来的事实。乐观言论不会让牛市重启，新的警告声音也不会刺破旧的泡沫。周期有自己的生命，该上行的时候上行，该下行的时候下行。这是很自然的事情。
7. Political wars guarantee intense volatility through 2014-2016 elections
7. 由于政治争斗的存在，2014年-2016年的选举过程中注定会有频繁的波动
Sorry, folks, but if you're an investor hoping America's political internecine wars will improve in the near future, just don't invest. The war between Congress with it's abysmal 10% approval rating and the president, the war between the Dems, GOP and the tea party, is going to get even worse, upsetting markets and the economy even more.
对不起了各位，但如果你是投资者，并希望美国政坛的互相残杀会在短时间内改善，那你还是别投资了。支持率跌至10%深谷的国会与总统之间，民主党、共和党和茶党之间的战争将越打越激烈，扰乱市场，更扰乱经济。
Why? Just add in the intensifying anger after the Supreme Court's decisions over same-sex marriage issues and gays, add in the growing anger over abortions, Obamacare, gun control, food stamps, the new voter suppression pushed by GOP governors, plus more threats by conservatives and the tea party to dig in their heels and fight to overturn everything and increase austerity too.
为什么这么说呢？只需想想最高法院对同性婚姻问题做出裁决之后人们越来越强烈的怒火，想想人们围绕堕胎、奥巴马医改、枪支管制、食品券、共和党州长新推的选民压制等问题越来越强烈的怒火，另外还有保守派和茶党顽固不化，力争推翻一切立法并加强财政紧缩。
This is all bad news for investors, just as America's 30-year bond bull is ending.
对投资者来说，这一切都是坏消息。而现在恰好是美国30年债券牛市行情即将终结的时候。
8. Employment futures weak as pensions drain states, municipalities
8. 随着养老金抽干州市财政，就业前景疲弱
Any 'jobs recovery is years away in most cities, ' says USA Today. And in reviewing famed analyst Meredith Whitney's new book, 'The Fate of States, ' she warns that 'excessive pensions crowd out both liberal goals such as education spending and tax cuts that conservatives want.'
《今日美国》(USA Today)说，对大多数城市来讲，就业复苏即使能实现，也得是在好几年过后。浏览知名分析师梅瑞迪斯•惠特尼(Meredith Whitney)新书《州的命运》(The Fate of States)时你会看到，她提醒说，“过多的养老金会挤出教育支出等自由派目标，也会挤出保守派希望实现的减税目标”。
Yes, pensions for retirees at state and municipal levels are preventing recovery. Corporate pensions are also a big problem, widening America's inequality gap: Drug company McKesson's CEO has been boss for 14 years, but will retire with a $159 million pension, while the income of America's average wage earner has stagnated for 30 years.
是的，州市层级的退休金妨碍了复苏。公司养老金也是一个大问题，它加剧了美国的贫富分化：药品公司麦克森(McKesson)的CEO才当14年的老大，但退休时将有1.59亿美元的退休金，而美国一般打工族的收入已经30年止步不前。
9. Investors brains are so distracted, in denial, they won't get out in time.
9. 投资者如此不在乎，如此不接受事实，他们不会及时逃出。
A Bubble With No Name Yet is still a bubble. But, Americans are too distracted, too numb, too in denial to hear the warnings. Reminds me of my headline back on March 20, 2000. 'Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming.'
“暂时没有名字的泡沫”依然是泡沫。但美国人太不在乎、太麻木、太不接受事实，所以听不到警告声音。这让我想起2000年3月20日我一篇文章的标题：“下次崩盘，对不起你们永远不会听到它的到来”(Next crash, sorry you'll never hear it coming)。
But the crash hit. The economy tanked. The recession lasted 30 months. Wall Street lost over $8 trillion of our retirement money. In the first decade of the 21st century, from the 2000 dot-com crash till 2010 disaster Wall Street's had a negative inflation-adjusted performance. Today Wall Street's returns are just barely beating inflation. No wonder investors feel cheated by Wall Street's casinos.
但崩盘还是来了。经济下滑，衰退持续了30个月，华尔街把我们的退休金拿去亏了超过八万亿美元。从2000年网络股崩盘到2010年的灾难，在21世纪的头10年里，华尔街经通胀因素调整后的绩效为负。今天华尔街的回报率也只是刚刚战胜通货膨胀。难怪投资者觉得被华尔街的赌场骗了。
10. Economics is killing the economy, but like coke addicts we won't stop
10. 经济学在害死经济，但就像可卡因成瘾者一样，我们停不下来
Nobel economists like Joseph Stiglitz, environmental activists like Bill McKibben, George Soros and the Institute for New Economic Thinking, politicians like Al Gore and other modern thinkers all warn us that traditional economists (and the banks, businesses and government agencies they work for) are addicted to bad economic theories, And they're sabotaging America's future.
约瑟夫•斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)等诺贝尔经济学奖得主、比尔•麦吉本(Bill McKibben)等环保活动人士、乔治•索罗斯(George Soros)及新经济思维研究所(Institute for New Economic Thinking)、阿尔•戈尔(Al Gore)和其他现代思想家全都提醒我们，传统经济学家（以及他们效力的银行、企业和政府机构）都已对坏的经济学理论成瘾，他们在破坏美国的未来。
The theories, yes, and also the bad statistics traditional economists use to mislead America: The worst offender, GDP is a narrow, misleading measure of America's long-term growth. And second, our obsessive focus on short-term numbers, daily stock closings, quarterly earnings, annual returns, is stunting America's long-term growth.
除了这些理论之外，还有传统经济学家用来误导美国的坏的统计数据：最恶劣的是GDP，它在衡量美国长期增长的时候是一个狭窄的、误导人的指标。其次，我们对短期数据（每日收盘情况、季度业绩、年度回报等）的执迷正在阻碍美国的长远增长。
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