Facebook won’t always exist. Sure, a company named Facebook will exist and sure, it will have a social network that is hosted on Facebook.com. But Facebook as our go-to social network has a finite lifespan.
脸谱网不会永远存在，但可以肯定的是，脸谱公司和在Facebook.com网址上的社交网络仍继续存在。但是，那时候的脸谱网就不是我们这个时代趋之若鹜的社交网络了。
Like Google, Yahoo, and even Amazon, Facebook will have to recast itself as the internet landscape changes. Google started as a better search engine. As the internet grew and exploded in use, Google shifted to providing a bevy of cloud services, trying to be the provider of your core internet experience through apps such as Google Documents, Gmail, and Google Maps. Now Google is shifting gears again by moving offline with Google Glasses, Street View, and Driverless Car.
就像谷歌，雅虎，甚至亚马逊一样，随着互联网大局的转变，脸谱终将重塑自身，适者生存。谷歌一开始以搜索引擎界领头羊著称，但随着互联网的成长，用途越来越广泛，谷歌开始提供一系列的云服务，试图用应用程序，如谷歌文档，谷歌邮箱和谷歌地图提供核心互联网体验。现在，谷歌正启动离线产品，如谷歌眼镜，街景地图和无人驾驶车。
Or there is Yahoo, which started as an internet directory but branched out into search and home page services. Today Yahoo provides a home page for 700 millionmonthly unique visitors and remains profitable despite its ever-shrinking market share.
还有一开始做门户网站的雅虎，后来分支出搜索和主页服务。如今，撇开其日益下滑的市场份额，雅虎主页每月独立访客达7亿，而且仍有利可寻。
Finally, Amazon started as the ecommerce bookseller, but Jeff Bezos constantly pushed the company beyond the confines of that pigeonhole category. Today Amazon is plotting a network of urban warehouses that can ensure same-day delivery, and has even turned itself into the preeminent cloud computing provider with Amazon Web Services.
靠开网上书店起步的亚马逊也不甘落后。杰夫·贝索斯不断推动公司突破类别的局限，现在的亚马逊正绘制出城市仓库网络的蓝图，确保当天送货，甚至已经把自己转化为亚马逊网络服务，成为卓越的云计算提供者。
Facebook now confronts two external forces that will shape how it grows: mobile and the threat of turf creep from other social products. Facebook has always had a rocky relationship with mobile. It took over a year after the iPad came out for Facebook to release an app for it. In addition, Facebook’s mobile apps have been plagued with complaints about sloth-like speed and a generally underwhelming user experience. At the same time, the breadth of mobile as a platform (over 488 million monthly Facebook users and counting) means that there are huge opportunities in stitching people together in the mobile space.
脸谱现在面临两大足以影响其成长的外力：移动应用和其他社交产品争夺地盘的威胁。脸谱和移动应用的关系建立十分坎坷。脸谱花了一年多的时间才让iPad上才有脸谱应用。而且，脸谱应用程序蜗牛般的运行速度和平淡无奇的用户体验饱受诟病。同时，作为应用平台，移动网络的广度（每月脸谱用户达4.88亿以上，且仍在增加）意味着在移动空间把人们联系在一起有着更大的可能。
Because of mobile’s rapid growth, new opportunities such as photo sharing and video sharing emerge quickly. Each time a new piece of the mobile paradigm is built, Facebook confronts a new risk. For example, Instagram quickly amassed over 30 million users before Facebook acquired them. The gaps in consumer mobile that result from Facebook’s inability to fill the mobile space fast enough provide clear opportunities to disrupt Facebook and take social eyeballs away from them. In the case of Instagram, it came at a cost of $1 billion.
因为移动网络的迅猛发展，新机遇，如图片共享和视频共享犹如雨后春笋层出不穷。每当新型移动模式建成，脸谱就面临新风险。比如，在脸谱刚刚有图片共享功能之前，图片共享应用就已经迅速累积了3千万个用户。由于脸谱网无法及时弥补移动平台上出现的明显的骚扰漏洞，加上自己的应用不足以吸引客户眼球，移动客户端才会出现差距。在图片共享这个案例中，脸谱就损失了10亿美元。
The harsh economics of mitigating the platform gap risk means Facebook will work more proactively to release mobile products. You already see the results of this with Facebook’s standalone applications: Messenger, Camera, and of course, Instagram.
缓解平台漏洞风险的严峻经济形势意味着脸谱要更积极的发布移动产品。你已经可以看到脸谱为此做出的努力，发布了一些独立应用程序：信使，照相机，当然还有图片共享。
As mobile increases opportunity risk for Facebook, it also causes a revenue problem. Facebook has struggled to capture mobile advertising dollars. Mobile advertising is challenged by various practical issues. First, the small display area makes it difficult to capture the attention of customers. Second, mobile is not the ideal platform for people to complete a funnel as they are often using it in short bursts of time.
移动网络加大了脸谱的机会风险，同时也引发了收入问题。脸谱努力争取移动网络广告收益，而移动广告则受到各种实际问题的挑战。首先，广告显示区域小难以吸引用户注意力。其次，对于只是间接性短暂性使用移动网络的用户来说，并不是广告营销的理想平台。
As a result, mobile ads struggle to gain clicks and suffer from weak CPM rates. Concurrently, Facebook suffers because an increasing fraction of its users are on mobile (and hampered by their mobile platform weaknesses. The next 10 years of Facebook will be defined by solving the mobile problem. How do you protect against mobile threats (a la Instagram and Viddy) and simultaneously solve the mobile revenue problem?
结果就是，移动广告竞争点击量，却得到疲软的广告效果要价。让脸谱受苦连连还有其手机登陆用户数量日益增多，却受制于自己手机移动网络的薄弱。脸谱今后的十年将致力于解决移动网络问题。而如何保护其不受移动网络的威胁并同时解决移动业务收益问题呢？
Facebook is also threatened by the scope expansion of other social products. What if Twitter starts building out a more thorough profile? What if Instagram remained independent and built a robust web platform? The next company to supplant Facebook may well start as a feature on some existing product: A photo-sharing application that slowly expands into a social network, or a group text message application that starts building profiles. Facebook appears conscious of this threat and evidently is trying to mitigate it ia acquisitions.
脸谱网还受到其他社交产品规模壮大的威胁。如果推特开始更完善的包装自己，如果图片共享保持独立，搭建更健全的网络平台会怎么样？下家排挤掉脸谱网的公司可能会在一些现有产品的特点上做文章：一个慢慢扩展到社交网络的照片共享程序，或是一个开始构建配置文件的组文本消息程序。脸谱网显然感觉到这样的威胁，所以已经在放缓它的收购。
Facebook in 2022
2022年的脸谱
The Facebook of 2022 will still lie firmly in the grip of Mark Zuckerberg, but will be quite different. Rather than a desktop-focused social network, Facebook will be the universal sign-in solution for the social web, a collection of various mobile applications, and a powerful external ad network that overcame Google’s publisher network.
2022年脸谱的命运依旧会牢牢掌握在马克·扎克伯格手中，但是却有很大不同。与其做电脑上的社交网络，脸谱将为社交网采用绑定登陆方式，包括集合各种移动设备和一个强大外部广告网络，从而战胜谷歌发行商网络。
Facebook has made continuous progress toward becoming a universal sign-in for the social web. Heavily used applications such as Spotify rely on Facbeook as their main sign-in provider. Facebook has accomplished this by leveraging the appeal of one-click signon as well as the breadth of data they are able to provide application developers without requiring a user registration form. Over the next 10 years, Facebook will work to solidify this advantage. Look out for more initiatives like the Facebook Fund, which provides financial incentives for people building on, or alongside, the Facebook platform.
脸谱已经为成为可以绑定登陆的社交网络做出不懈努力。使用频繁的应用程序如音乐播放器把脸谱作为主要的登陆工具。脸谱利用吸引人的一键式登陆和数据传输宽度 可以不需要填写用户注册表就能提供应用程序的使用。在今后的10年，脸谱将致力于巩固这一优势。寻求更多主动权，如脸谱基金就给那些建立或辅助脸谱平台的人们提供资金支持。
In addition, Facebook will continue pursuing their strategy to provide distinct mobile experiences. Whether it’s Instagram or Messenger, Facebook’s mobile strategy will be a series of applications distinct from desktop Facebook that leverage their data and network while still providing a unique experience. This lets Facebook try more things while freeing mobile from legacy constraints derived from the core network’s functionality.
不仅如此，脸谱还会继续提供不同的移动体验。不管是图片共享或是信使，脸谱的移动策略将是和电脑脸谱区分开来的一系列应用程序，利用原有的数据和网络，同时仍提供独特的体验。这样，脸谱既能从衍生于核心网络功能的残存的束缚中得到解脱，又能尝试到更多。
Finally, Facebook will become the main provider of external advertising, overcoming Google’s adwords and display business. Facebook’s eventual, and long rumored, external ad network has the power to target not only contextually within the page, but also use the reams of information that Facebook already has to attain deeper targeting. In the last couple of months, we’ve seen Facebook’s first attempt at this external ad network with the launch of Facebook “sponsored ads” on Zynga.com. Watch over the next few years as Facebook builds a large publisher network based on the promise of true demographic targeting.
最终，脸谱将成为外墙广告的主要载体，从而超越谷歌的赞助商链接和显示广告业务。脸谱传说已久的外墙广告网络不仅可以嵌入页面上下文，还能运用已经深层嵌入的大量信息。在前几个月中，我们看到脸谱在外墙广告的首次尝试，就是在Zunga.com网站上发布脸谱的“赞助广告”。展望未来几年，为实现真实人数指标的承诺，脸谱会建立起更大的发行商网络。
The Facebook of 2022 will look a lot more like a data warehouse; that is, a utility providing users and web developers an easy way to store and access personal information. Facebook will create new ways to experience and operate with this data, such as a lineup of mobile applications and a massive external advertising network that has inherent advantages over Google’s publisher network. These changes come both from the opportunities presented by the rich set of data that Zuckerberg holds tightly, and by the consistent and growing threat of mobile. Facebook in 2022 will look much more utilitarian, but no less influential.
2022年的脸谱看上去更像是一个数据加工厂，也就是说，是让用户和网络开发商更容易存储和的服务和获取个人信息的实用工具。脸谱将为体验和运用这些数据创立新方式，比如一系列的移动应用程序和一个比谷歌发行商网络更具优势的巨大的外部广告网络。这些改变都是从扎克伯格手中紧握的大量数据的机遇和移动网络持续壮大的威胁中得来的。2022年的脸谱将更加务实，但却更具影响力。
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