Apple hasn’t even announced the iPhone 5 – heck, the company so far hasn’t even acknowledged that the thing exists – and already the company’s shareholders want to know what it can do for an encore.
苹果尚未宣布要推出iPhone 5手机——啊呀，该公司到目前为止甚至还没有承认iPhone 5手机确实存在——而该公司的股票持有者早已想知道，苹果再次推出新产品会带来多少好处？
Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster thinks the answer is, plenty.
美国投资银行派杰（Piper Jaffray）分析师吉恩·蒙斯特（Gene Munster）认为，上述问题的答案是：会带来很多好处。
In a research note this morning, Munster walks through some of the reasons he thinks investors should be feeling bullish about the stock beyond the coming iPhone refresh.
今天上午，蒙斯特在一份研究报告中对此做了详尽解释，提出了他认为除了即将发布的iPhone手机将会提振苹果业绩之外，投资者应该看好该股的其他一些理由。
In the fall of 2013, the company will likely launch iPhone 6. Munster notes that some investor fear the hype won’t be as high as it heading into iPhone 5.
——苹果很可能会在2013年秋季推出iPhone 6手机。蒙斯特指出，一些投资者担心，随着iPhone 5手机即将推出的日子越来越临近，市场对这款新手机的热情将不再那么高。
But he also predicts that as existing iPhone next year will drop to an unsubsidized price of $200 from $375 today for the 3GS 9 GB model. “This should accelerate share gain in emerging markets and increase investor confidence in the sustainably of Apple‘s overall growth, ” he says. Munster thinks the company can accelerate iPhone sales to 34% unit growth in calendar 2014 from 25% in 2013, driven in part by a cheaper iPhone offering. He thinks the company’s market share in smartphone can grow to 32% in 2015, from 20% this year.
——但他也预计，现有款式的iPhone手机明年将从苹果iPhone3GS（8GB）手机目前的375美元降至200美元（非补贴价格）。他说：“这应会加快苹果在新兴市场上的份额增长，并且提高投资者对苹果总体业绩持续增长的信心。”蒙斯特认为，该公司iPhone手机销量的同比增长速度会从2013年的25％加快至2014年的34％，部分原因是苹果将提供价格较为便宜的iPhone手机。他认为，该公司在智能手机领域的市场份额会从今年的20％提高到2015年的32％。
He sees iPad growth accelerating with a late 2012 launch of a smaller-size iPad, likely with a 7-8 inch screen. He notes that of the 25%-30% of the tablet market that Apple does now own, about 75% consists of 7 inch tablets. If the company can take 50% of the 7 inch market, the overall result should be a 10% boost to Apple’s market share.
——他认为，随着苹果在2012年晚些时候推出较小尺寸（很可能是7-8英寸的屏幕）的iPad平板电脑，iPad销量的增长步伐将会加快。他指出，在苹果在全球平板电脑市场上尚未占据的25％-30％份额当中，约75％是7英寸平板电脑。如果该公司可以在7英寸平板电脑市场上获得50％的份额，那么苹果的总体市场份额将会提升10％。
The launch of Apple Television grows closer. “While the concept of Apple introducing an actual television is nothing new, most buy side investors are mixed [on whether] the television is a reality, ” he writes. “Given this skepticism, we believe Apple launching a Television will be a catalyst for shares. Our confidence that the Apple Television is real is primarily based on our checks with component suppliers, as well as Steve Jobs‘ biography, and Tim Cook’s comments on the June conference. We expect Apple could launch the TV in mid to late 2013 and continue to believe the company will announce the TV ~6 months ahead of launch to freeze the market.” He thinks the TV will sell for $1, 500-$2, 000 at retail and could add 4-8% to calendar 2013 revenues.
——推出苹果电视机（Apple Television）的日期越来越临近了。“虽然苹果推出一款真正电视机的想法并无新意，但大多数买方投资者对苹果是否真的会推出苹果电视机持有不同看法，”他写道，“鉴于目前存在这种怀疑态度，我们相信，苹果推出一款电视机的举动将成为助推股价上涨的一个触发因素。我们之所以相信苹果确实会推出电视机产品，主要是根据我们对零部件供应商进行的核查，以及史蒂夫·乔布斯的传记，还有苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）在6月份会议上发表的言论。我们预计，苹果可能会在2013年年中至年底期间推出苹果电视机，而且仍然认为，该公司将在正式推出苹果电视机前六个月宣布此项消息，以此来锁定市场（即有意购买苹果电视机的消费者将推迟购买，等待苹果电视机的推出）。”他认为，苹果电视机的零售价格将在1,500美元至2,000美元之间，可使苹果2013年（自然年）的营收增加4％至8％。
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