There is no shortage of advice out there on how to make a good impression — an impression good enough to land you a new job, score a promotion, or bring in that lucrative sales lead. Practice your pitch. Speak confidently, but not too quickly. Make eye contact. And for the love of Pete, don't be modest — highlight your accomplishments. After all, a person's track record of success (or a company's, for that matter) is the single most important factor in determining whether or not they get hired. Or is it?
关于如何给别人留下好印象的建议不在少数。一个好的印象可以给你帮你搞定工作，得到升职机会，或带来的是利润丰厚的销售绩效。斟酌你的语调，自信地交流，而不要说得太快。要有眼神交流，对Pete有爱慕之情，不要害羞，向TA展示你的优点。毕竟，一个人的光辉事迹是决定TA能否被录用要考虑的最重要的因素。是这样吗？
As it happens, it isn't. Because when we are deciding who to hire, promote, or do business with, it turns out that we don't like the Big Thing nearly as much as we like the Next Big Thing. We have a bias — one that operates below our conscious awareness — leading us to prefer the potential for greatness over someone who has already achieved it.
碰巧的是，事实并非如此。因为当我们决定雇用谁，提升谁，或与谁做生意时，结果是我们喜新厌旧。一种次于我们的意识的观点即我们的偏见，让我们喜欢有潜力的人而非一些已经取得成绩的人。
A set of ingenious studies conducted by Stanford's Zakary Tormala and Jayson Jia, and Harvard Business School's Michael Norton paint a very clear picture of our unconscious preference for potential over actual success.
斯坦福大学的Zakary Tormala and Jayson Jia精心设计了一些研究，哈佛商学院的Michael Norton 也向我们描绘了一组非常清晰的画面---在无意识的情况下，我们更偏好于潜在的成果而非实际成果。
In one study, they asked participants to play the role of an NBA team manager who had the option of offering a contract to a particular player. To evaluate the player, they were given five years of excellent statistics (points scored, rebounds, assists, etc.) These statistics were described either as ones that the player had actually earned in five years of professional play, or as projections of how he was capable of playing (i.e., his potential) in his first five years.
其中一个研究，他们请参与者充当某一NBA球队的经理，而他有与特色选手签合同的机会。为了评估选手，他们有5年时间来创造好的成绩（得分情况，篮板，助攻等）。这些数据可以是选手5年中在一些专业比赛中的表现，也可以是选手在他前5年内如何有能力打好比赛的预测（比如他的潜力）。
Then the "managers" were asked, "What would you pay him in his sixth year?" Those who evaluated the player with potential for greatness said they would pay him nearly a million dollars more in annual salary ($5.25 vs. $4.26 million) than those who evaluated the player with a record of actual greatness. Potential evaluators also believed their player would score more, and would be more likely to make the All-Star team.
这时，“经理”被问道：“在他的第六个年头，你如何支付？”评估有潜力选手的人会说他们将会支付他100万美元的年薪（525万美元比426万美元），这比评估有实际战绩选手的人给的多。潜在的评估者也相信他们的选手会得分更多，而且更有可能成为全明星队。
Tormala, Jia, and Norton found the same pattern when they looked at evaluations of job candidates. In this case, they compared perceptions of someone with two years of relevant experience who scored highly on a test of leadership achievement, versus someone with no relevant experience who scored highly on a test of leadership potential. (Both candidates had equally impressive backgrounds in every other way). Evaluators believed the candidate with leadership potential would be more successful at the new company than the candidate with a proven record of leadership ability. (Incidentally, if you ask the evaluators to tell you whose resume is more impressive, they agree that it's the one with experience. They still prefer the other guy anyway.)
Tormala, Jia和 Norton在观察了对应聘者的测评后也发现同样的结果。在这种情况，他们比较了有2年相关经验并在现有领导力测试中得高分的人与没有相关经验却在未来领导力测试中的高分获得者。（2种人在其他方面都有着令人印象深刻的背景。）评估者相信，与有公认领导力的人相比，有潜在领导力的人在新的公司会更成功。（顺便说一下，如果你问评价者谁的简历更令人印象深刻，他们一致认为一定是一个有经验的，但他们还是更喜欢其他人。）
In other studies, the researchers showed how we prefer artwork and artists with potential to win awards over those that actually have, and prefer restaurants and chefs with the potential to be the next big thing in dining over the ones who have already made their name. In a particularly clever study, they compared two versions of Facebook ads for a real stand-up comedian. In the first version, critics said "he is the next big thing" and "everybody's talking about him." In the second version, critics said he "could be the next big thing, " and that "in a year, everybody could be talking about him." The ad that focused on his potential got significantly more clicks and likes.
在其他的研究中，专家们说，相比已获奖者，我们更愿意相信有发展前景的艺术和艺术家更容易得奖；相比已远近文明的厨师，我们更愿意相信新的餐馆和新晋厨师会是将来的烹饪大亨。这儿有一个特别睿智的研究，他们比较了2个版本脸书为一个真正的单口相声演员做的广告。第一个版本说“他是明日之星”和“他家喻户晓”。第二个版本说“他将是明日之星”和“他将家喻户晓”。结果，人们更多地关注和点击这则侧重于其潜力的广告。
And this is not, incidentally, a pro-youth bias in disguise. It's true that the person with potential, rather than a proven record, is sometimes also the younger candidate — but the researchers were careful to control for age in their studies and found that it wasn't a factor.
顺带说一句，这并不是变相的“护幼”偏见。事实证明，年轻人往往是有潜力的人而非功名成就的人，但前提是研究人员细心排除年龄这个因素对研究结果的的影响。
So, since preferring potential over a proven record is both risky and inherently irrational, why do we do it? According to these findings, the potential for success, as opposed to actual success, is more interesting because it is less certain. When human brains come across uncertainty, they tend to pay attention to information more because they want to figure it out, which leads to longer and more in-depth processing. High-potential candidates make us think harder than proven ones do. So long as the information available about the high-potential candidate is favorable, all this extra processing can lead (unconsciously) to an overall more positive view of the candidate (or company). (That part about the information available being favorable is important. In another study, when the candidate was described as having great potential, but there was little evidence to back that up, people liked him far less than the proven achiever.)
那么，既然偏向有潜力的而非战绩赫赫的都有风险，其本质上又都是非理性的，为什么我们要这样做？据研究，相对于已有的成就，潜在的成功更有趣因为它的不可知。当人类大脑遇到不可知的东西，他们会给予更多关注因为他们想弄清楚是什么，这会导致更长更深的考虑过程。潜力极大的求职者比已认可的求职者让我们再三考虑的可能性更大。只要关于这颗潜力之星可用的信息是有利的，所有这些附加的思考会（不自觉地)引导我们有对于这个求职者（或公司）整体积极的看法。（也就是说，获得这部分有利的信息很重要。在另一调查中，当参与者被描述为有很大潜力却没有事实佐证时，人们喜欢他会远远低于成熟的成功者。）
All this suggests that you need a very different approach to selling yourself than the one you intuitively take, because your intuitions are probably wrong. People are much more impressed, whether they realize it or not, by your potential than by your track record. It would be wise to start focusing your pitch on your future, as an individual or as a company, rather than on your past — even if that past is very impressive indeed. It's what you could be that makes people sit up and take notice — learn to use the power of potential to your advantage.
所有这一切都表明，你需要一个非常不同的方式来推销自己而非靠你的直觉，因为你的直觉很可能是错的。无论人们是否意识到与否，给他们留下深刻印象的是你的潜力而不是你的成绩。作为个人或作为一个公司，即使过去的确辉煌，但你明智的做法是要专注未来，从你的音调开始。你要做的就是让别人坐好并做好笔记，学着去利用潜力发挥优势。
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