Of all characteristics that made the 2007-2008 financial crisis unique, one stands out: The simultaneous decline of almost every asset category. US stocks dropped 37 percent, German stocks 42 percent, and Chinese stocks 62 percent; commodities dropped 37 percent (with oil and copper dropping 54 percent). This means that investors had nowhere to hide, taking multiple hits across their portfolios.
2007-2008年金融危机具有许多独特的特征，其中有一项尤为突出：几乎所有资产类别同时下跌。美国股市下跌37%，德国股市下跌42%，中国股市下跌62%；大宗商品价格下降37%（其中石油和铜下降54%）。这意味着投资者无处可藏，其投资组合遭受全方位打击。
The roots of this broad decline in multiple asset categories can be traced back to the September 2001 Greenspan “put, ” which lowered the cost of owning different assets. This means that investors didn’t have to sell one asset to buy another, as was the case before Greenspan’ put went in place. That explains why stocks, commodities, and Treasury bonds rallied simultaneously between 2001 and 2007—though T-bonds usually move in the opposite direction than stocks and commodities.
多种资产类别全面下跌的根源可追溯至2001年出炉的格林斯潘对策（Greenspan put），该对策降低了拥有不同资产的成本。这意味着，投资者没必要像格林斯潘对策推出之前那样，卖出一种资产，以购买另一种资产。这就是股市、大宗商品和长期国债在2001年至2007年间同时上涨的原因所在——但我们知道，长期国债通常与股市和大宗商品反方向移动。
While helping all asset categories to rally, the Greenspan put had an undesired consequence: it caused a synchronous one-direction move across asset categories, undermining the effectiveness of asset diversification in lowering market risks. In other words, markets were in a “deadly embrace with each other, ” as Financial Times columnist John Authers puts it in The Fearful Rise of Markets.
虽然格林斯潘对策帮助所有资产类别同时上涨，但它也产生了一个不受欢迎的后果：这种货币政策导致所有资产类别价格都发生单边的同步波动，进而破坏了资产多元化在降低市场风险方面的有效性。换言之，市场“被死死地捆绑在一起”，此语出自《可怕的市场崛起》（The Fearful Rise of Markets）一书，其作者是《金融时报》（Financial Times）专栏作家约翰·奥瑟兹（John Authers）。
“It was March 2007 that I realized the world’s markets had each other in a tight and deadly embrace, ” writes Authers. “A week earlier, global stock markets had suffered the ‘Shanghai Surprise, ’ when a 9 percent fall on the Shanghai stock exchange led to a day of turmoil across the world. By that afternoon on Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrials Average suddenly dropped by 2 percent in a matter of seconds. A long era of unnatural calm for markets was over.”
“我第一次意识到全球市场被死死地捆绑在一起，是在2007年3月，”奥瑟兹写道，“一周前，全球股市刚刚遭受‘上海意外’（Shanghai Surprise）的洗礼：上证综指暴跌9%，令当日的全球股市陷入动荡。当天下午，道琼斯工业平均指数在几秒钟内下跌2%。市场此前长期经历的有违常理的冷静期宣告结束。”
That’s why the 2007-8 financial crisis was so severe. Once one trade reversed course, so did other trades, creating a contagion that broadened and magnified the market correction.
这就是为什么2007-2008年金融危机如此严重的原因所在。一旦某个交易产品逆转方向，其他交易产品也会如此，由此扩大了市场调整的广度和深度。
That’s the good news.
这是个好消息。
The bad news is that, as the financial markets recovered, the positive correlation across asset categories has continued. In the last six months, for instance, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NYSE:TLT), SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD), and iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) moved higher by close to 10 percent. Obviously, the prospect of inflation caused by Quantitative Easing (QE) drove precious metals higher.
坏消息是，随着金融市场逐渐复苏，各种资产类别的正向调整依然在延续。比如，在过去6个月中，安硕巴克莱美国20年以上期国债、SPDR黄金基金（SPDR Gold Shares）、安硕白银信托基金（iShares Silver Trust）上涨了近10%。显然，由量化宽松政策导致的通胀预期驱动贵重金属价格上涨。
Why didn’t this prospect drive bond prices lower? Because of the Bernanke “put, ” which now covers a broader category of assets, from Treasury bonds to mortgage back securities, to stocks.
这种前景为什么没有驱动债券价格下跌呢？其原因在于伯南克对策（Bernanke put），从国债到抵押贷款支持证券，再到股票，伯南克对策现在涵盖更广泛的资产类别。
This means that the next financial crisis will be even nastier. It will find many investors holding the same assets, all of which will correct simultaneously.
这意味着下一场金融危机将更加凶险。届时，许多投资者将持有相同的资产，而且这些资产将同时作出调整。
So what should prudent investors do? How can they protect their portfolios against this prospect?
那么，审慎的投资者究竟应该怎么做？他们该如何保护其投资组合免受这种前景的影响呢？
Use financial derivatives rather than traditional asset diversification to cut markets risks.
通过金融衍生品（而不是传统的资产多元化）来减低市场风险。
Financial derivatives can work like traditional insurance: they shift market risks to somebody else for a fee (premium). Here are two trades to consider: First, buy in or out of money puts on SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY)or SPDR Select Sector Fund – Financials (NYSE:XLF), which has gained a great deal since the financial crisis. Second, buy volatility, through the purchase of iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Fund (NYSE:VXX) or indirectly through the purchase of Calls on VXX.
金融衍生品的运行方式有些类似于传统的保险：通过支付一定的费用（权利金），用金融衍生品将市场风险转移给其他人。以下是两种值得考虑的交易产品：首先，购买SPDR标普500指数基金或者标普500金融精选板块基金的实值或虚值看跌期权，后者自金融危机以来已获得了巨大的投资收益。其次，通过购买iPath标普500波动性指数短期基金或间接通过购买该基金的看涨期权，做多波动性指数。
The bottom line: The resumption of easy money policy by the Federal Reserve in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis has re-affirmed and broadened the positive correlation of different asset categories, undermining the effectiveness of asset diversification strategy in reducing market risk. This means that, with investors trying to exit from several crowded trades at the same time, the next financial crisis will be much nastier.
总结：美联储在2008年金融危机之后再次实施的宽松货币政策，重新肯定并扩大了不同资产类别的正面调整，破坏了资产多元化在降低市场风险方面的有效性。这意味着，由于投资者试图同时从几个参与者众多的交易产品中退出，下一场金融危机将变得更加凶险。
|
