Predictions of the Chinese economy’s imminent recovery have proved overly optimistic so far this year, but stabilising inflation and recent strong money growth are signalling that the slowdown may be nearing an end.
对于中国经济今年即将复苏的预测在目前被证明是过于乐观的，但是处于稳定中的通货膨胀和坚挺的货币增长传递出经济下滑可能已经接近结束的信号。
Chinese consumer price inflation dipped to 1.9 per cent in September from 2 per cent in August, showing the government still has room to ease monetary policy.
中国九月份的消费者价格指数从八月份的百分之二下降到百分之一点九，表明政府仍然有空间采取宽松的货币政策。
At the weekend, China reported that in September exports rose 9.9 per cent, a much stronger number than had been expected. While few analysts believe such strength will be sustainable if the European and US economies continue to struggle, the outlook is not as grim as initially feared.
在周末，中国发布报告，九月份的出口增长了百分之九点九，比预测的数据要高很多。虽然只有很少的分析人士相信这样的强劲出口在欧洲和美国仍在继续奋斗的情况下将会持续，但是前景并不像最初担心的那样暗淡。
“We have become more confident that the economy is bottoming out and will pick up in the months ahead, ” said Zhang Zhiwei, an economist at Nomura.
“我们对在未来几个月里经济将触底回升变得更有信心。”野村证券的经济学家张志伟说。
China reports third-quarter economic data on Thursday and the country is widely expected to have recorded its seventh consecutive quarterly slowdown. Underlining the weakness, the World Bank last week downgraded its forecast for China’s full-year growth to 7.7 per cent, which would be its lowest in more than a decade.
同广泛预计的一样，周四中国第三季度经济数据报告显示这个国家已经连续七个季度的经济下降。凸显这一弱点的是，世界银行上周将其对中国全年的经济增长预期下调到百分之七点七，这将是十多年来最低的。
Given this background and the government’s evident reluctance to unleash a large fiscal stimulus, it might seem foolhardy to predict an upturn before the end of the year. But several analysts are starting to do just that.
在上述情况及政府明显不愿实施一个大规模的财政刺激计划的背景下，预测在今年年底之前经济状况会有好转可能看起来是鲁莽的。但是一些分析人士已经开始这样做了。
“China’s economy has continued to slow down in the past months and there is no rapid rebound in sight, ” Louis Kuijs of Royal Bank of Scotland said. “However, the ... trade data, together with the September data on financing, suggest a bottoming out may be in sight.”
“中国的经济在过去的几个月里持续下降并且目前没有快速反弹的迹象，”苏格拉皇家银行的高路易说。“然而，这个……贸易数据，和九月份的金融数据，表明一个触底回升可能就在眼前。”
Robust financing flows in September are the clearest indication that the economy could be taking a turn for the better. Although renminbi loans were a little weaker than expected, the broader picture of credit growth was much more positive.
九月份健康的金融融资流是经济情况可能正在好转的最清晰的迹象。尽管人民币贷款略逊于预期，但更广泛的信贷增长更加积极。
The central bank has developed a concept called total social financing to encompass all forms of credit in the system, including equity and bond issuance, traditional bank loans and an array of off-balance-sheet loans. That overall number shot up to Rmb1.65tn ($260bn) in September from Rmb1.24tn in August.
中央银行已经提出一个囊括系统中所有信贷形式，包含股票和债券发行，传统形式的银行贷款和一系列资产负债表外贷款在内的社会总融资概念。总数据从八月份的1.24万亿人民币飙升到九月份的1.65万亿人民币（2600亿美元）。
For local governments, which have announced more than Rmb10tn of investment projects in recent months, this money will make it easier to get to work, even if their plans remain overambitious.
对于那些最近几个月已经宣布了总计超过10万亿人民币投资计划的各地方政府来说，尽管它们的计划仍然过于雄心勃勃，但是这些投资资金将很容易发挥作用。
Wang Tao of UBS said: “The fact that bonds, trusts and other forms of social financing are helping to finance the funding needs at the local level means that public investment should continue to pick up in the coming months.”
瑞士银行的王涛说：“事实上债券、信托和其他形式的社会融资手段满足了地方层面的资金需要意味着公共投资将在未来的几个月里继续增长."
Subdued consumer price pressures and falling producer prices also give the government more room to ease monetary policy without worrying about inflation.
减弱的消费者价格压力和下降的生产价格同样给予政府更多的空间放松货币政策而不用担心通货膨胀。
Shen Jianguang of Mizuho Securities said: “Inflationary pressure will not be a primary concern for the economy in the coming months. It will thus provide scope for monetary easing.”
瑞惠证券的沈建光说：“通货膨胀的压力并不是中国经济未来几个月里首要关注的问题。因此这将能够更进一步范围内采取货币宽松政策。”
The People’s Bank of China has confounded many investors and analysts who had thought that it would ease monetary policy more aggressively. It last cut interest rates in July and has not trimmed lenders’ required reserves since May.
中国人民银行使得很多认为它将采取更加积极的货币宽松政策的投资者和分析人士感到困惑。它最近一次于七月降低存款利率并且从五月份开始没有削减过存款准备金。
But in recent weeks, the central bank has injected a vast amount of short-term liquidity into the financial system via open-market operations, signalling a willingness to keep money relatively easy.
但是在最近几周里，中央银行通过公开市场业务向金融系统注入了大量的短期流动性资金，发出希望保持货币相对宽松的愿望。
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