So, here we are in December already. December 2012. You know what that means?
你在看这篇文章？很好。因为如果你认为在2012年12月21日将迎来世界末日，那么就错地不着边际了。
Got your attention? Good. Because if you think anything even approaching armageddon* is going to occur on December 21, 2012, you are 100% wrong.
现在，我就要打破沙锅问到底，探寻“世界末日”这个概念到底从何而来。关于这个概念，或多或少得归根于对玛雅历法一些观点的误解和世界末日的看法（或者说一段时期的结点和另一时期的起点）。对于末日，人们确实有过一些研究，但玛雅历法却已经有了说法（不是通过人们使用的数列组合来预计），即2012年12月21日的意义。没有确凿的证据表明，这一天在玛雅日历上预示着：“我们都将死去”，那么人们为什么这么认为呢？我看过很多版本的“末日说”，例如：1、行星与星河中心将连成一线；2、暗星或大行星将飞掠地球轨道（例如尼布鲁行星）；3、人们的胡乱猜测。所以，为了努力消除大家的疑虑及漫天的流言，我将对玛雅预言做一个简短的问答式调查，因为很多末日事件还包括地震和火山喷发。以下请看：
Now, I’m not going to get into all the gritty details of where this notion that the world “will end” on 12/21/2012 arose. It more or less boils down to some confused ideas about the Maya** calendar and when it supposedly ends (or at least one period begins and another ends). There has been some research on the subject and it is anything but settled what exactly is in the Maya calendar and what, if any, significance 12/21/2012 might have (other than people love dates with pretty number sequences). There is no hard, unquestionable archeological evidence that 12/21/12 has much meaning in the Maya calendar or that even if it did, that it proclaims “we’re all doomed”.
A：现在没有一项证据表明大规模的行星队列会引发地球上的地质灾害——地震、火山喷发。有实际作用的行星体——有证据显示，它们确实能产生较小的影响——就是太阳和月球，这要归结于它们相对的距离和质量（尤其是月球）。我在讨论所谓的“超级月亮”的谬论时提到过这一点，而“超级月亮”并不能给地球带来地质变化。那么，行星队列到底以为着什么呢？银心必须对地球产生一些力（还有太阳系），否则地球就不会转动。但是，除此之外，行星队列是经常发生的事情，银心对地球产生大约0.00006x的力，正如月球对地球产生的力；对太阳产生约0.00000037x的力。照这样小的影响来看，说银河中心的力会改变地球上的一切，这未免太荒谬了吧？
However, if we (wrongly) assume that 12/12/2012 is the end of the world, then how will it supposedly happen? Most of the “theories” I’ve seen involve a lot of nonsense about (1) alignment of planets and the galactic center; (2) the close pass of some dark star or large planet to Earth (e.g., Nibiru); (3) complete random rubbish. So, as to try to quell some of the rumors out there, I thought I’d do a brief Q &A about the Maya Apocalypse because a lot of the ways the world ends involves earthquakes and volcanoes. Here goes:
Q：那么关于太阳暗伴星和尼布鲁行星，你怎样看？
Q: I’ve heard about the Earth, Sun, other planets and the galactic center aligning on 12/21/12. Will this trigger disasters on Earth.
A：关于这一点，与那些信奉玛雅预言的人争论只会让事情变得更复杂。这颗被形容为“凶猛”的行星，或者说太阳暗伴星的行星——尼布鲁，根本不存在。但不能因为它不存在就说排除在玛雅预言体系之外。如果有任何物质即将撞击地球，到现在，肯定会有人观察到，况且它的体积要么比月球体积大，要么比月球密度大，才能撞击断层线。就算行星的可见度极低，身材再苗条，我们也能从地球上窥探它的身躯。但现在还没有谁声称他已经看到了——无论是天文学家还是天文爱好者。这样，我们就能说它不可能存在。那么，你可能会争论，也许是世界各个国家领导部门迫使人人都对这件事保持缄默，并封锁各地的消息，这样由于缺乏证据，我就无法查证。如果你真的相信这类事，记得写封邮件给我，我会告诉你一些我所知的关于罗斯威尔事件和HAARP的秘密。
A: There is not a single iota of evidence that large-scale planetary alignments cause changes in geologic events – like earthquakes and eruptions – on Earth. The only celestial bodies that could play some role – and there is some evidence that suggest that they may, in minor ways – are the Sun and the Moon. This is due to their relative close proximity (especially the moon) and their mass. I’ve covered some of this in my discussion of why the so-called “Supermoons” are silly and play no role in increasing/decreasing geologic events. What about the alignment with the galactic center? The center of the galaxy must exert some force on the Earth (and solar system) or we wouldn’t be orbiting it. However, beyond that fact that alignments like this happen all the time, the force that the galactic center exerts on Earth is ~0.00006x that of the Moon on Earth and ~0.00000037x that of the Sun, doesn’t it seem a little ridiculous to claim that the galactic center can change anything on Earth if the Sun and the Moon cause little-to-no effect on geologic events?
（译注：
Q: What about the sun’s dark star companion and/or rogue planet Nibiru?
罗斯威尔事件：最著名的”不明飞行物”事件，1947年7月发生于美国新墨西哥州罗斯威尔，据说外星人的飞碟在此坠毁，美国空军不仅捡到了飞碟的碎片，还秘密解剖了外星人的尸体。
A: Here is where arguing with the Maya Apocalypse believers gets tricky. Nibiru, the rogue planet or dark solar companion, does not exist. However, just because something doesn’t exist doesn’t mean that it can’t get its way into the Mayan apocalypse lore. Now, if anything of the mass needed to cause any effects on Earth (see above) was approaching, someone would have seen it by now. It would have to be either much larger or much denser than the Moon to even jostle a faultline Even objects with very low albedo (reflectivity) can be seen from Earth, even if they are small, so how a large object approaching would not have been noticed and announced by someone – professional or amateur – makes its existence next to impossible. Now, you could claim that the world’s governments are forcing everyone, everywhere to cover it up and I can’t argue with that because it has no factual basis. If you are prone to believe such things, send me an email and I can let you in on some secrets I have about Roswell and HAARP.
HAARP： 是美国一项对外宣称为“气象研究项目”的秘密计划，因其内容神秘、保密严格而不为外界所知，也是美国战略防御计划局、海军、空军等部门与美国国家科研机构及有关大学联合开展的一项具有重大战略意义的综合军事研发项目。）
Q: Could the disasters like they had in 2012 really happen?
Q：关于人们所说的在难真的会在2012年发生吗？
A: HAHAHHAHAH. Oh wait, sorry, that was a real question? 2012 is as far from scientific fact as, oh, theWizard of Oz. Almost everything that occurred in 2012 can’t happen based on our understanding of the Earth – the plates can’t wander the Earth’s surface — moving 1000s of km overnight, neutrinoscan’t magically become microwaves (even during solar maximums), the magnetic field can’t magically change instantaneously, John Cusack can’t really drive a Bentley out of the back of crashing An-226 onto a Tibetan glacier and have everyone survive. Sorry.
A：哈哈哈哈，抱歉，你是认真的吗？关于2012年的说法都是缺乏科学依据的，就像……童话一样。基于我们现在对地球的了解，这事还不会发生——只要盘子还不能在空中飘浮，就像中微子不会一夜之间变成微波（即使在太阳活跃期），磁场不会毫无征兆的发生改变，约翰·库萨克也不能或者开着宾利穿越至西藏的冰山，不好意思。
Q: Isn’t the Sun at a solar maximum right now and a solar storm will wipe out all life on Earth?
Q：太阳现在是在活跃期吗？太阳风暴会不会摧毁地球上的所有生物呢？
A: The Sun does go through highs and lows of activity – and the next maximum is predicted to occur in 2013. However, the cycle is ~11 years long, so we have go through many highs and lows over humanity’s existence. Why the 2013 maximum (which, incidentally is after 12/21/12 … I checked) would be any different has no basis.
A：太阳的活动波动大，确实不稳定——下一次的活动期预计在2013年。但是，这周期长达十一年之久，这期间，我们人类不也会经历众多生老病死吗？
Q: I read that the magnetic field will “flip” on 12/21/2012 and earthquakes/eruptions will happen because of it.
Q：我听说在12月21日这天，磁场会”跳转“，从而引发系列地震与火山喷发。
A: Sorry, first off, magnetic reversals can’t just “flip” like a switch. Our understanding of the Earth’s magnetic field involves the motion of the liquid outer core, so changes in the magnetic field are likely gradual, taking thousands of years to occur. Also, there are likely no disasters that occur during the process of a magnetic field reversal. Over the last few million years, the magnetic field has reversed numerous times and no global cataclysm came each time.
A：对不起，首先我要说明一点，磁场并不能像一个开关一样交替”跳转“。我们所了解到的地球磁场包含了外地核的液体运动，所以磁场的变化发生的十分缓慢，要等上千年才会发生改变。另外，在磁场逆转的过程中，也不会带来什么灾难。上百亿年来，磁场逆转的情况发生了无数次，但每一次都没有发什么全球性的灾难。
Q: Isn’t there a fleet of spaceships coming to attack Earth on 12/21/2012?
Q：最后，我该担心2012年12月21日的到来吗？
A: No, not in the least. The Maya Apocalypse is just another in a long line of wild apocalyptical theoriesthat have likely be occurring since, well, the Dawn of Man. There have been so many false “endtimes” predictions that, as Riley Finn put it: “It turns out I suddenly find myself needing to know the plural of apocalypse.“ If the end of world (and let’s be honest, most of this really means the end of humans) were to come from within the Earth or from space, we would like know about it well in advance (or, alternatively, have no warning whatsoever) with scientific evidence to back up the claims of doom. There are very real threats of potential asteroid and comet collisions with Earth that could end civilization as we know it. However, those do not happen magically because some Mayan carver decided he/she ran out of space on the calendar wheel.
A：不，完全不用。玛雅预言只是千福年说中的一种（译注：千福年说【传说耶稣将重临人世统治的一千年】，信千福年，太平盛世），而千福年说自人类文明诞生之始就一直存在，这过程也产生了许多错误的“末世”说，Riley Finn甚至说过：“突然有一天，我发现，‘末世们’也挺值得玩味玩味。” 如果受地心或宇宙的影响，世界末世真的发生，那么我们应该会在充分的科学依据的基础上，提前了解并做好充足的准备。众所周知，未知的小行星、彗星撞地球的事件可能结束过某种文明。但是，不能因为玛雅人在雕刻日历（译注：见文章开头的图片）时，发现没有多余的空间去记录剩下的日子，就认定那一天就是世界末日。
Feel free to chuckle at the people who are seriously looking for bunkers to shelter in on December 21, 2012. So far, the Apocalypse Now crowd is hasn’t gotten one right yet (case in point: you exist). At least you know that science doesn’t fall for apocalyptic hysteria.
至于那些已经为自己挖好坟墓，等待世界末日到来的人，你可以尽情去嘲笑他们。至今，那些纷繁众多的‘末日说’中，仍没有一个是有依据的。至少你该明白，科学并不会因为人们对“末日”的恐慌就失去自身的力量。
*Author’s note – These are acceptable ways that the civilization ends: asteroid/comet, climate, massive volcanic eruption, zombie pandemic, Daleks, the Master, the Mayor turns into a giant snake monster, Gachnar (although that would be a very tiny apocalypse), gateway to Hell opens over Los Angeles, Anubis, Tripods, Triffids, Ragnarok and possibly a Farnsworth Doomsday Device.
附1：以下这些情况才会使人类文明结束：小行星或彗星撞击地球，大规模的火山喷发，僵尸遍野，机械公敌，邪恶的大师，蛇形人身的市长，恶魔Gachnar ……（译注：以下省去众多小说、电影情节中具有毁灭性的角色）
** Apparently there is a lot of debate about whether to use Maya or Mayan. Special thanks to @thirstygecko.
附2：至于要不要相信”玛雅人“，显然颇具争议。特别感谢@thirstygecko。
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