Lifting weights is good for building muscle, but too much of the exercise can cause a body to break down. The same goes for an economy when it comes to investment spending.
举重有利于强身健体，但举的过多则可能导致身体崩溃。同理，投资支出对于一个经济体也是如此。
Standard & Poor’s economists think they have come up with a shortcut to determine whether an economy is spending too much, ranking economies based on their vulnerability to an investment-led economic collapse.
标准普尔(Standard &Poor’s)的经济学家认为，他们找到了一种判断一个经济体是否支出过多的简单方法，按照各经济体可能因投资过度而发生经济崩溃的风险水平对其进行排名。
Topping the list of economies to worry about, S&P says, is China, where outlays on things like infrastructure, factories and housing account for more than 40% of the economy.
标普说，排在榜首的是中国。在中国，基础设施、工厂、房屋方面的支出占经济总量的40%以上。
Investment spending helps boost economic growth in the short term and can also help in the long term if it increases productivity. Examples would include building roads that reduce travel times between a factory and a port or a school that prepares students for the workforce.
投资支出短期内可以帮助推动经济增长，如果投资支出提升了生产力，则长远来看也会带来益处。这样的例子包括建造公路，缩短工厂到港口的行驶时间，或建造学校，培养学生为劳动大军提供后备力量。
An extreme example of an unproductive project might be a toll bridge with no cars or a hospital with only a few patients. When such projects go into the red, people will eventually stop investing in new ones, leading to an economic crunch.
对于徒劳无益的项目，一个极端的例子可能是一座没有汽车通过的收费桥或是一家只有寥寥几个病人的医院。当这样的项目出现亏损时，人们最终会停止投资新项目，造成经济紧缩。
“The level of a country’s investment overhang can be a leading indicator of a potential economic correction, ” S&P says.
标普说，一个国家的投资支出水平可能是潜在经济调整的一个领先指标。
It compares investment spending as a percentage of GDP to real GDP and adjusts the two measures in a way that makes it possible to rank fast- vs. slow-moving economies in terms of risk.
这个指标将投资支出占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重与实际GDP进行比较，调整这两个做比较的指标，使其能够将增速不同的经济体按风险水平进行排名。
China is the only country of 32 examined in S&P’s study to be in the high-risk category.
中国是标普研究的32个国家中唯一一个属于高风险类别的国家。
Countries with an intermediate level of risk include Brazil, Australia, Indonesia and South Africa, which have all invested heavily in recent years to supply China’s natural resource needs.
风险处于中等水平的国家包括巴西、澳大利亚、印尼和南非。这些国家近年来都大力投资来满足中国对自然资源的需求。
At the low end of the risk scale are the U.S., Taiwan and Germany, where investment has been low or at sustainable levels.
风险处于低水平的国家和地区包括美国、台湾和德国。在这些国家和地区，投资一直处于低水平或处于可持续的水平。
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