Apple: Time For An iPhablet?
Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes set out in a research note this morning to nudge the company in that direction. He contends that one of Apple‘s biggest challenges in 2013 will be the fact that the company has chosen not to get involved in the market for phone measuring 5 inches or larger, where Samsung and others have found considerable success. (At CES, Huawei was actually showing on a 6-inch phone.) The iPhone screen is 4 inches; older versions were 3.5 inches.周一，巴克莱资本（Barclays）分析师本·雷兹（Ben Reitzes）在一份研究简报中敦促苹果公司（Apple）向这一方向发展。他认为2013年苹果公司面临的最大挑战之一将是他们已选择不参与5英寸或更大规格的手机市场，而三星（Samsung）和其他公司已在这一市场中取得了相当大的成功（在国际消费电子展上，华为展示了一款6英寸的手机）。iPhone 5的屏幕大小为4英寸；而老版的iPhone手机采用的则是3.5英寸屏幕。
Reitzes writes that Apple has chosen to maintain the current size for easier one-handed use. But he thinks that factor is now largely irrelevant.
雷兹写道，苹果已经选择维持现有尺寸以便于单手操作。但他认为如今这一考虑在很大程度上已无关紧要。
“One-handed use is arguably less important since phone calls are becoming less important than navigation, texting, videos, books and Web access for many, ” he writes. “Also, the larger screen seems to be more popular outside of the U.S. and the phablet has significant momentum in China. Our global tech team believes that growth for the 5”+ smartphone market will exceed that of the overall market, rising from 27 million Phablet units in 2012 to 230 million in 2015 at a CAGR of 105%, not including a new iPhone version.”
“对许多人来说，既然电话功能的重要性正让步于导航、文本编辑、阅读和上网，单手操作可以说就不那么重要了。”他写道，“另外，在美国以外地区更大的屏幕似乎更受欢迎，而且平板手机在中国的发展势头明显。我们的全球科技团队认为，5英寸以上的智能手机市场增长将超过整体市场增长——不计以后推出的新iPhone手机，平板手机数量将从2012年的2,700万部增长到2015年的2.3亿部，复合年增长率为105%。”
Reitzes sees Apple in mid 2013 introducing a lower cost phone targeting emerging markets as well as an iPhone 5S upgrading the current top of the line. “We believe the most important advances for the iPhone in 2013 will be actually be improvements to iOS and its services, which can expand the market for Apple, ” he writes. “We believe Apple can turn perceptions around with a real move into payments, an integrated iOS-led television service and improvements to iCloud (including subscription-based services).”
雷兹预计苹果将于2013年年中推出低成本手机以瞄准新兴市场，并发布iPhone 5S以对目前产品线中的佼佼者进行升级。“我们认为对iPhone而言，2013年里最重要的发展实际将是iOS操作系统及服务的提升，这可以为苹果公司扩展市场，”他如是写道，“我们认为，苹果可以通过真正的投资举动将公众注意力集中于由iOS操作系统主导的整合电视服务以及iCloud的提升（包括基于订阅的服务）。”
But he’s holding out hope for a 5-inch iPhone; he thinks the company could head in that direction by A4 of this year or some time in 2014.
但他仍坚持期待5英寸的iPhone手机；他认为到今年第四季度或2014年的某时，苹果公司可能会向这一方向发展。
“By the time this product comes to market, Apple would likely need some incremental innovations in it vs. the current market of 5” products including the inclusion of NFC, advanced imaging features and improvements in navigation, ” he writes. “We believe that an Apple Phablet or large screened phone could offset some of the ASP declines we expect from the production of low-end phoned designed for emerging markets. We believe an Apple Phablet could boost blended iPhone ASPs by about 5% and could add $7 in EPS in calendar 2014 if Apple sold ~40 million units (20 million incremental, assuming a 50% cannibalization ratio of higher end iPhone 5s).”
“到该产品上市时，相对于当前的5英寸产品市场，苹果很可能需要拿出一些渐进式的创新，包括纳入近场通信（NFC）、先进的成像功能以及导航方面的改进。”他写道，“我们认为，一款苹果平板手机或大屏幕手机的推出能够抵消我们所预计的由生产为新兴市场设计的低端手机而造成的一些平均销售价格（ASP）下滑。”我们认为一款苹果平板手机可以将各种iPhone机型的平均销售价格提高大约5%，并且如果苹果公司售出了4,000万部设备（假设高端iPhone 5S的占比为50%，增量则为2,000万部），2014年苹果公司的每股盈利就能增加7美元。”
Before you write off the idea as unlikely, keep in mind that Apple initially rejected the idea of a 7-inch tablet – and the iPad mini has been wildly successful.
在你对这一想法不屑一顾之前，不要忘记苹果公司最初也曾反对过7英寸平板电脑的构想——而如今迷你iPad已经大获成功。
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