作者: 金融时报中文网
译者: 爱尔兰都柏林大学 赖小琪
中国会不会发生金融危机？ 中国银行(Bank of China)董事长肖钢对外界的一些说法表示不以为意，这些说法认为，过去两年中国在政府指令下信贷空前扩张，其结果是中国可能面对自己的银行业危机。
Will the financial crisis occur in China? Xiao Gang, The chairman of the Bank of China does not treat the arguments outside too seriously. These arguments suggest that Chinese government has conducted unprecedented expansion of credit in the past two years, which may result in the crisis of banks in China.
“外面有一些分析和估算，称未来几年内中国可能发生一场金融危机，”这位中国市值第三大银行的董事长在北京全国人大年会间隙表示。 “但我认为，银行业不良贷款大幅增加的几率很小。”
“According to some external analysis and evaluation, a financial crisis may take place in the following years. “ said Xiao Gang, the chairman of the bank of China that ranks the third in market value in Chinese banking sector, “But the possibility of the non-performing loans’ rapid increase is very slim.”
仅仅在过去两年，中国各银行就发放了大约15.7万亿元人民币（合2.667万亿美元）的贷款，而2008年的新增银行贷款仅为略高于4.5万亿元人民币。面对当时的全球经济危机，北京方面的回应是打开信贷闸门，加大基础设施建设力度。
All Chinese banks have released about 15.7 trillion RMB [up to 2.667thrillion dollars] loans in the past two years. But increase of new loans in 2008 was only marginally more than 4.5 trillion RMB. Facing the global financial crisis at the time, Beijing promised to lower the threshold of financial credit and reinforce infrastructure constructions.
新增贷款中有很大一部分流入了房地产和地方政府基建项目。分析师——甚至中国一些银行业人士——表示，这种信贷狂潮加剧了通胀，而很多贷款将无法偿还。
The real estate and local governmental infrastructure projects occupy a large part of the new loans. Analysts and even some insiders from Chinese banks claimed that this kind of financial credit expansion would deteriorate the inflation and result in growing non-performing loans
肖钢承认，几乎可以肯定，中国各银行的不良贷款率会从目前不到1%的较低水平上升，但他表示，不会出现不良信贷大幅飙升的情况。
Xiao Gang admitted that it is almost for sure that the non-performing loans rate of different Chinese banks would increase at a speed of less than 1%. However, he said that it would not soar significantly.
评级机构惠誉(Fitch)在去年6月和11月两次警告称，根据该机构对多数大型经济体进行的标准化风险评估，信贷激增的结果是：中国可能在未来三年内面对一场银行业危机。
The rating agency --Fitch warned twice in last June and November that according to its standardized risk assessment on most economic entities, the consequence of drastic surge of loans is that China would face a banking crisis in the following three years.
肖钢表示，中国各银行迄今没有看到大量借款者陷入困境、无力偿还贷款的情况，同时他表示，对于中国政府能够在未来几年保持快速稳定的增长抱有信心。 他表示，中国各银行近年对买房和买车的个人零售客户大幅增加放贷，也降低了银行业危机的风险。
Xiao Gang claimed that banks in China had not seen the situation that a lot of loans borrowers were trapped and failed to compensate the loans. At the same time, he expressed great confidence in Chinese government’s ability to maintain rapid and steady growth in the coming years. He also said that Chinese banks have greatly increased the credit on individual house and car buyers, which also helps lower the risk in the banking sector.
“谁都知道中国人有还债的传统，而且只会借自己将来有能力偿还的金额，”肖钢表示。 亚洲金融危机之前，在韩国、台湾等经济体经历消费信贷繁荣期间，“文化上反感欠债”曾是一种常见的说辞，但在韩国和台湾，人们的借款习惯迅速发生了改变，导致不良贷款快速累积。
“Everyone knows that it is a good tradition for Chinese people to pay the debts and that Chinese people will only borrow the amount of money that they are able to pay back in the future.” Xiao Gang said. Korea and Taiwan had experienced the period of consumption and credit boom before the Asian financial crisis. “Culturally Rejecting Debts” used to be a popular saying, but now in Korea and Taiwan , many people have rapidly changed their habit of borrowing, which led to the rapid accruing of non-performing loans.
中国的上一场金融危机在10多年前达到顶峰，当时政府对国有的银行业进行了纾困和重组。此前在90年代中期发生了政府指令下的放贷狂潮，按照一些人的估算，那场放贷狂潮造成高达50%的不良贷款率。
The last financial crisis in China reached its peak ten years ago. The Chinese government had helped the state-owned banks out and reconstructed them. Before that, there was a huge loan-releasing tide ordered by the government in the mid of 1990s. According to some estimates, The non-performing loans rate at that time reached as high as 50%
中国政府已指示各银行今年减少放贷，自去年10月以来，还至少5次提高了银行存款准备金率。 肖钢表示，中行预计今年发放约6000亿元人民币新贷款，低于去年的大约6200亿元人民币，但这不太可能对利润造成重大影响，因为利率上升将提高贷款和债券的回报
Chinese government has ordered every bank to cut down their loans this year. And the banks have raised the deposit rate for at least five times since last October. Xiao Gang claimed that the bank of China would release a new loan of 600 billion RMB this year, which would be lower than that of last year, 620 billion.But it will not have any large impact on the profit , because the increased interest rate will result in a higher return on loans and bonds. |
