地震或改变日本复苏轨迹
中文作者: 英国《金融时报》 王明 东京报道
英文译者: 爱尔兰UCD 赖小琪
直到周五下午，日本经济复苏面临的最大风险一直是油价高企、出口需求不确定，以及犹犹豫豫的政府和更加大胆的反对派之间在预算问题上即将进行的摊牌。
Until Friday afternoon, the biggest risk facing Japanese economic recovery was the sky-high oil price and the disability of export demand, as well as the hesitant government and the upcoming showdown on the budget issue by the increasingly bold oppositions.
一场强烈地震就在这时重创了日本东北部宫城地区海岸。这是一个触目惊心的事例，提醒人们，还有一些更为基本的风险，可能威胁到人口稠密、易受地震冲击的日本列岛上的经济活动。
Today an ever-powerful earthquake heavily struck the coast of Miyagi region in northeastern Japan. It is a shocking event that reminds people of some more basic risks that may threaten the economies of the densely-populated and seismically vulnerable Japanese archipelago.
衡量自然灾害的全面影响需要时间。周五，官员及救援机构仍难以估算受灾地区损毁的程度和人员伤亡情况。
It takes time to comprehensively evaluate the impact of this natural disaster. On Friday, officials and rescue agencies could still hardly measure the extent of damages and casualties in affected areas.
不过，这场地震至少给日本经济复苏划上了一个巨大的问号——经济学家们原本期望，在2010年后三个季度陷入停滞后，复苏将于当前的季度提速。
However, this earthquake may at least pose a big question mark to Japanese economic recovery—economist had expected that Japanese economy might recover at a faster speed in the current quarter after stalling in the last three quarters of 2010.
去年，日本经济增长了3.9%，为20年来的最快增速。但产出仍远低于全球金融危机前的水平，而与之前的3个月相比，上一季度的国内生产总值实际上萎缩了0.3%。
Last year, Japanese economy achieved an increase of 3.9%, the fastest growth rate in the past two decades. However, its current GDP is still far lower than that before the global financial crisis. Compared with the past three months, its GDP of the last quarter in 2010 had indeed decreased by 0.3%
地震对主要经济体的影响，往往没有最初预期的那么严重，而且周五受灾最重地区在经济上的重要性，亦远不及关西地区的沿海工业区——在1995年神户地震之后，该地区遭受了大范围的中断。
The impact of earthquake on the major economies tends to be less serious than initially expected. Moreover, the most severely-affected regions on Friday are not as important as the coastal industrial zone of the Kansai region, which suffered large-scale regional disruption after the Kobe earthquake in 1995
麦格理集团亚洲首席经济学家理查德•杰拉姆表示，整个日本东北地区占日本经济的比重约为8%，而神户一个城市就占到了4%。
Richard Jerram , Macquarie Group’s chief economist in Asia, said the entire northeast region accounts for about 8% of Japanese GDP, while the single Kobe City accounts for 4%.
不过，这场灾难可能加深消费者和投资者心目中对日本经济能否持续复苏的不确定性，日本经济正试图走出战后最严重的衰退。日本的增长仍严重依赖美国、欧洲和中国等关键市场的需求，经济复苏已受制于海外局势。
Nevertheless, the disaster may deepen the worries of consumers and investors on the sustainability of Japan's economic recovery while Japanese economy is trying to get out the most serious post-war recession. Japan's GDP growth remains heavily dependent on the U.S., Europe and China and other key market demand, which indicates its economic recovery has been subject to the overseas situations.
“人们首先担心的是，脆弱的经济周期承受不起严重的破坏。”杰拉姆表示。
“People are worrying that the vulnerable economic cycle cannot afford the severe damages.” Jerram said.
目睹了自己所在办公区域建筑工地上的起重机“像暴风雨中的树木一样弯下了腰”，摩根大通日本首席经济学家菅野雅明(Masaaki Kanno)匆匆赶出了一份研究报告，简要罗列了一些可能立刻出现的影响。
Witnessing the crane on the construction site nearby his office area stooped like a tree in the storm, Masaaki Kanno, JP Morgan’s chief economist in Japan, rushed out a study briefly listing some effects that might occur immediately.
“看起来整个运输和配送系统将需要一段时间，才能开始恢复正常运行，”菅野雅明表示，“商业活动，特别是东北部地区的商业活动将受到损害。”
“ It seems to take some time for the entire transport and distribution system to resume normal operation, " said Masaaki Kanno, "Commercial activities, particularly those in the Northeast will be damaged. "
东京一些便利店里的食品货架几乎空空如也，这突显出首都附近人口稠密地区的食品和生活必需品消费需求短期内有可能大幅上涨，但这场灾难还可能让人们减少另一些可有可无的需求，比如旅游。
In some convenience store in Tokyo, food shelves are almost empty, which implies the consumption of food and necessities may soar significantly in the densely populated areas near the capital in the short term. Also, it may lead people to reduce some non-essential needs such as tourism.
至少，与1995年时相比，日本企业应该有了更充足的准备，以应付不可避免的供应链中断。
At least, compared with 1995, Japanese companies should have better prepared to cope with the inevitable supply chain disruptions
由于吸取了1995年那场灾难的教训，日本政府和保险公司在积极鼓励各家企业（哪怕是一些小企业）拟定详细的“商业应急方案”，旨在尽最大可能降低损失，并帮助它们迅速恢复。
Drawing on the lessons of the disaster in 1995, the Japanese government and insurance companies have been actively encouraged each company (even some small enterprises) to develop detailed "Business Contingency Plans" , which aim to reduce losses as much as possible and help them quickly recover.
长期而言，这场地震势必导致受灾地区在建筑和公共建设工程方面大举投入，那些海啸卷走整座建筑物的恐怖画面表明，应对损害将需要巨大的努力和高额投资。
In the long run, this earthquake will inevitably lead to affected areas’ massive investment in the architecture and public construction works. The horrible scenes in which the whole building was swept away by tsunami indicates great effort and large investments in dealing with damages incurred.
通过迫使家庭和企业动用自身储蓄为重建筹资，这场灾难可能在今年剩余时间内为经济增长提供支撑。
By forcing families and businesses to spend their own savings financing reconstruction, the disaster may provide support for economic growth in the rest of the year.
此前，执政的民主党致力于将支出“从混凝土转向人民”，减少公共建筑工程预算，转而提高儿童补贴、改善社会福利，这些举措令日本建筑行业受到了严重挤压。
Before that, the ruling Democratic Party was committed to shifting spending "from the concrete to the people " in order to reduce the budget for public construction projects in favor of increasing child allowances and improving social welfare. All these measures made Japanese construction industry severely crushed.
而今，在东北地区，将需要更多的混凝土，这对重压之下的承包商是个好消息。
But now, the Northeast region will need more concrete, which is a good news for contractors under great pressure.
但是，为受灾地区公共建设工程融资的需求，将使政府预算承受更大的压力。在2011财政年度，日本政府在收入方面势必更加依赖新债券发行（而非税收），这将是连续第三年出现这种局面。
However, the demand for financing public construction works in affected areas will put more pressure on the government budget. In the 2011 fiscal year, the Japanese government is bound to become more dependent on the revenues generated by new bonds (not taxes) to be issued for the third consecutive year.
尽管这场地震无疑将确保政府和反对党就实施预算所需的立法达成妥协——这减少了一个不确定性的来源——但这可能至少会延缓日本平衡其帐户、并由此确保其财政生存能力的行动。
Although the quake will no doubt ensure that the Government and the opposition to reach a compromise on the legislation required to implement the budget- that reduces a source of uncertainty - but this may at least make Japan slow down in balancing its accounts, and thus guarantee actions to preserve its financial viability.
研究机构资本经济(Capital Economics)表示，“金融市场也必须考虑这场灾难的经济成本和对于公共财政的影响，影响将十分巨大。”
Capital Economics, a research institution said, "financial markets must also consider the economic costs of this disaster and the impact on public finance, which would be enormous. " |
