得知你得了肝硬化晚期, 我手中的钥匙霎时掉落到地上.
我还没反应过来, 泪水就已经夺眶而出, 虽然我找不到充分的理由为你而哭.
宿舍没有人, 安静得令人窒息.
我就蹲在阳台前, 把头埋在双臂里, 放声痛哭.
似乎好久没有这样哭过了, 积压的情绪一下子全爆发出来.
所有对你的怨恨, 所有曾经的恩恩怨怨, 在这一刻都消失在我的心头.
现在对我来讲, 最大的心愿, 不是指望你可以完全康复, 而是希望你多活几天.
深夜, 敲响你的房门, 半晌也没有人开.
突然发现, 房门没有上锁, 我径自走了进去.
纸张散落一地, 酒瓶和饮料瓶漫地滚落.
我想不到, 到了这个时候, 你仍然不懂得爱惜自己, 居然还喝得酩酊大醉.
终于, 酒精让你的肝痛如刀割. 你在从沙发滚到地上, 从地上又爬到沙发.
此情此景, 再次让我流泪得咬牙切齿.
我只能静静地站着, 望着翻滚呻吟的你, 爱莫能助.
在大家的劝说下, 你终于同意去住院了.
人死如灯灭, 不知你离开这个世界后能否真正获得安宁.
我只知道, 从此刻起, 我的生命的某个角落, 多了一处无法填补的空白.
或许, 这就是我们无法逃避的宿命…….
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中国经济决策者的 “两难” 困境: 物价与货币政策
原文: 选自英国>
译者: 赖小琪
China does not quite fit the classic definition of stagflation: a persistent combination of high inflation with sub-par growth. But prices were still rising in July and growth, if still firm, appears to be fading. A regular reading of activity levels by purchasing managers within the service sector, published by HSBC/Markit on Monday, recorded a series-record low of 50.6 for the month of August. That signals no more than a marginal expansion. Six of the 13 official PMI series tracked by China’s Federation of Logistics and Purchasing have dipped below 50, indicating contraction. Even in the world preoccupied by Europe, this should raise concern.
中国的目前的经济状况不太符合 “滞胀” 的传统定义: 滞胀是高通胀率和经济增长停滞衰退的长期结合. 但是, 七月份的物价仍然上涨, 而增长的势头, 如果仍然坚挺的话, 似乎有减弱的趋势. 周一汇丰/Markit 公布的报告显示, 8月份服务业经理采购指数跌破历史新低, 只有50.6. 这意味着服务业只是进行了小规模的扩张. 在中国物流与采购联合会统计的13个经理采购指数中, 有6个已经跌破50, 这意味着业务量在收缩. 即使目前全世界都在为欧元区的危机感到担忧, 这也成为了另一个忧虑.
China’s policymakers are in a bind. Note that August was the first month this year that was free of increases in either the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates. As the US and Europe once more struggle for economic traction, some factions within the politburo would like to join them in an extended pause in monetary tightening, or even to ease a little. But headline consumer price inflation, politically sensitive in China, will not allow it. July’s CPI was almost unchanged at a three-year high of 6.5 per cent. Local media reports suggest not much change in August’s reading, to be reported this Friday.
中国的决策者如今陷入进退两难的困境. 我们可以注意到, 8月是今年唯一一个中国央行既没有调高存款准备金率, 也没有调高银行利率的月份. 正当美国和欧洲再次竭尽全力维持经济增长, 中共中央政治局内部的某些团体也想和这些国家一样, 延长货币紧缩政策的暂停时间, 甚至想稍微放松货币政策. 但是关于消费品物价通胀的头条新闻层出不穷, 而且基于这个问题的政治敏感性, 相关决策者不敢贸然实施宽松的货币政策. 七月份的CPI几乎没有什么变化, 仍然居三年之最, 达6.5%. 中国当地的媒体报导显示, 八月的CPI(本周五即将揭晓)也不会有太大的变化.
The good news is that base effects, if nothing else, will help to tame CPI in the coming months. A rising currency, too, works to take the edge off import prices: August’s 10 per cent annualised rate of gain against the dollar was the biggest since last September. But for now, the tensions are obvious. Writing last week in the policy periodical of the Chinese Communist party, Premier Wen Jiabao reaffirmed that price stability is the “primary task”, while claiming that signs of slower growth are “at a reasonable level”. Maybe they are. But balancing between jobs and prices has rarely seemed so complex.
好消息是, 如果没有别的更好的手段的话, 基数效应也可以让CPI在未来几个月下降. 不断升值的人民币也有助于降低进口商品的价格. 八月份,人民币对美元的汇率的年化上升率为10%, 创去年9月以来的新高. 但是目前的紧张形势还是显而易见的. 温家宝在上周为中共政策期刊撰写的一篇文章中重申, 维持物价稳定是当务之急, 同时较为缓慢的经济增长率也维持在了一个合理的水平. 或许这都是实情. 但是平衡就业和物价很少像现在这么复杂. |
